The whole Syrian conflict was reduced to pure cynicism and a
proxy playground as the US has not been able to put together a coherent force
to bring down Assad or defeat ISIS. The Free Syrian Army is a fiction, a
nomenclature and false unity attached to groups of mostly Islamist forces, some
with loose ties to Al Qaeda and in other cases only a shade removed from groups
like ISIS. The rest of the so-named FSA is comprised of small factions of
Syrian army defectors, groups of Kurds and handfuls of Syriacs and Druze. There
is no unified command and it's not clear who they're fighting against or
alongside with. The various groups are just as likely to fight each other.
There are few if any secular Sunnis to speak of and the US
has known this all along. This is why the attempted to create a new vetted
fighting force but that ended in a dismal failure. Most of them quickly
defected to the various Al Qaeda-type groups and handed over their munitions
and supplies.
The Russians saw an opportunity and took it. They hope to
defeat the all anti-Assad/pro-Islamist militias and force a deal thus securing
Assad, blocking ISIS and at the same time preventing the US from gaining
complete hegemony of the Levant.
Erdogan wants to defeat the Kurds and keep them from forming
a state and creating a political faction within his country. The US is scheming
against him and yet they're also more than willing to betray the Kurds. There
is no honour among thieves and murderers. Everyone is shaking hands with knives
hidden behind their backs.
But again, Putin stepped in and changed all the equations.
His motives are less than pure though no more sinister than any of the other
proxy actors.
Erdogan was able to defy his electoral setbacks, and push for
new elections. His victory signifies in many ways another defeat of the policy
the US has pursued for the past 12-13 years. Yet, his victory also secures the
need for the moment with regard to Syria.
His victory is mired and clouded by shadowy forces moving
against him in the political, military and cultural spheres. NATO is a friend,
and one that desperately wants to keep Turkey in their camp. And yet NATO
represents a military alliance and that's perhaps where his greatest internal
threat lies. The return to Kemalist policies vis-à-vis the Kurds does much to
win the military to his side, but will it be enough? Will it stand?
He will necessarily seek to consolidate his power. He knows
the US will continue to move against him but quietly, and at present things may
be put on 'pause' so to speak. For the moment he's doing what the US wants.
Will the 2003 affront to the United States be forgiven and forgotten?
Christians in Turkey run the risk of being caught in the
middle. They can be viewed as a potential Fifth Column, a source of
intelligence and a means to funnel money into other causes. That said, the US
hardly needs to work through Church groups as they do in other places. The US
has long ties to the Turkish Underground and many other ways to shake things
up.
Christians will serve as a convenient object of scorn,
representatives of Western Imperialism and treachery. As Islamists look for
quarry, sadly there's a good chance Christians will make inviting targets.
