Despite what the one contrary commentator says near the end
of the article, this is indeed largely about China. And the reason it has been
cranked up a few notches is because of the US withdrawal from the TPP. Some are
trying to salvage the treaty but without the US it is but a shadow.
India is acting in its own interests vis-à-vis ASEAN but it
is also acting in the capacity of proxy for US interests in the region.
Economic and military ties will have to be established through various means
and this is one of them. I'm not sure if it would be correct to say that New
Delhi is 'threatened' by China's OBOR project but even if it doesn't take money
away from India (which it might) it will lessen their influence and by
implication the influence of their American partner.
Nations like Vietnam want the economic benefit of US and
Indian trade but they also are looking for some muscle to help them stand up to
China. They're not afraid of an invasion, it's happened before and everyone
knows Vietnam can't be conquered. Yet, the costs of such a war are detrimental
and undesired. Vietnam in 2018 is not the Vietnam of 1968 that was bombed by
the Americans or the Vietnam of 1979 that was invaded by China. They have a lot
more as stake and thus more to lose.
The truth is that even though no one can match the Vietnamese
when it comes to guerilla warfare they have no chance of standing on their own
in the South China Sea. They cannot compete with the Chinese navy and they
along with Indonesia, the Philippines and others are looking for powerful
backing. They know they are pawns in the great power game but they at least
want to be on a winning side and one they believe will protect them. In light
of Thailand's recent inching toward Beijing, I'm sure this event was also meant
to make sure Bangkok stays within the correct circles.
This extravaganza will further endear Modi to the power-elite
of the West and yet it will also encourage them to look the other way as Modi
seeks to establish an authoritarian state that persecutes Christians and other
religious minorities. Realistically Modi will never be able to establish a true
authoritarian system. India is too big and too populous and there are many
long-standing insurrections within their borders. And yet, through the RSS and
other paramilitaries a lot of grief can be generated.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.