10 February 2018

OBOR in Laos... and Thailand

The One Belt One Road (OBOR) or New Silk Road initiative has been in the news a lot as of late. This brief piece cites yet another instance of OBOR's expansion. The fact that Beijing would collaborate with Laos is hardly a surprise but Thailand's inclusion points once again to the weakened hand of the United States. The US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has reduced its standing in the region. While Thailand was not one of the original members of the TPP, the longtime US ally had aspirations to join the framework. Where the TPP stands now is still up in the air but without the US, it won't in any way represent what it once did.


There are many reasons to celebrate the collapse of TPP. Apart from an extension of globalism it represented an expansion of corporate-state power and regulation over journalism, ideas and made several creepy strides in the direction of censorship and information control.
But its demise definitely has harmed the US imperial project. It was meant to consolidate US influence and restrict China. Its collapse has led to a surge in Chinese power as Beijing has stepped into the gap and is quickly maneuvering to create its own Eurasian trade block in the One Belt One Road project. Since then the US has been running around coercing and sometimes even threatening its allies to get in line and get on board with the US military agenda in the region. Some have responded, some haven't. Without the TPP, the US is left with its traditional satellites (Australia, South Korea, Singapore and Japan) and the nations on its alliance-periphery such as Taiwan and Thailand. The trade deal was meant to cement the relationship with nations such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Sri Lanka and to re-establish strong ties with former satellites like the Philippines and Indonesia.
Of course the treaty would also help to strengthen US influence on the South American Pacific periphery. Without the treaty the US is reduced to military arrangements and essentially arm-twisting to make sure nations stay on board with the United States.
In recent years the only real 'victory' the US has scored is the acquisition of and partnership with India. The US has established military and economic ties and this will certainly affect the wider region as India's influence is substantial. And yet it has thoroughly antagonised Pakistan which has moved closer to Beijing.
The future is with China, at least that's how some see it, hence nations like Thailand are starting to tilt toward Beijing. They're not severing ties with Washington but they're covering their bases and thinking of the future.
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