Turkey and NATO/ Brunson and Gülen

Is Erdogan some kind of monster? Is he an irrational dictator?

He's hardly some kind of godly leader but the media portrait is disingenuous and frankly misrepresents who he is and certainly why he's doing what he's doing.

Turkey's relationship with NATO continues to degenerate. The basis for Turkish membership in the Western alliance and possible accession to the European Union was based on Kemalism. Though Erdogan has not removed the Kemalist iconography from the state, he has in practice all but abandoned it.

Neo-Ottomanism is what some have labeled his project while others refer to it as a form of Islamism. The latter label is accurate but often misunderstood. He is not a radical, though many believe him to be and critics will point to Turkish support for terrorist groups in Syria. The latter example is in many ways irrelevant as Turkey is by no means alone in this. The United States and Israel have done the same. Such isolated accusations usually indicate either ignorance or a deliberate smear agenda. Turkey is playing the same dirty game as the rest of the 'players' in the Syrian theatre.

That said, Islamism under Erdogan, even some varieties that flirt with extremism are being tolerated within Turkey, especially in the East and Southeast, while previous Kemalist administrations wouldn't have allowed it.

One of the early signs that Erdogan was breaking with Kemalism was his rapprochement with the Kurds. Islamism allowed him to deal with them on the basis of Islam as opposed to Turkishness. Kemalism, a form of secular nationalism made much of being Turkish and thus the Kurds were automatically out of favour unless they abandoned their heritage and culture and went through Turkification. Many Kurds integrated long ago, so there was and is some precedent for this and yet the bulk of the Kurds have rejected assimilation into the post-WWI Middle Eastern states.

But the brief and positive relationship with the Kurds collapsed in light of Kurdish militarism vis-à-vis ISIS in both Iraq and Syria. The rekindling of the Kurdish martial spirit and nationalism drove Erdogan to revert to Kemalism's traditional posture toward the Kurds and for all intents and purposes, Ankara's war with the Kurds of Southeast Anatolia is back on and has in fact spread across the whole northern reach of the Kurdish zone... or Kurdistan which transcends the borders of Turkey, Iraq, Syria and even Iran. The latter is the only portion of 'Kurdistan' which has not broken out into conflict... yet. The fact that the US is backing the Kurds has exacerbated tensions with Ankara.

Erdogan has established a tenuous relationship with Moscow rooted in some common interests and yet the alliance is a long-shot and has virtually no historical support. The two nations are at odds over larger Turkic questions regarding Tatars and Central Asian Turkic peoples. They are not going to be in agreement when it comes to the Caucasus or Syria. At this point Turkey is trying to avoid putting all its eggs in one basket. This is in many ways the heart of Neo-Ottoman policy and it represents Turkey leveraging its geopolitical position... and yet this move is perceived as hostile in the West.

Erdogan wants to become less reliant on NATO and yet doesn't want to completely abandon the relationship. And yet in buying weapons systems from Russia he has angered Brussels and even more important, Washington. He knows the US Deep State is out to destroy him and he has largely dismantled the US-connected Deep State within his own nation... the very same Deep State that has staged multiple coups and has deep political and military connections. It was this mechanism that out of a sense of urgency acted in July 2016.

Elements within the military made their move. These 'elements' also seem to be connected to both the US military and the Gülen Movement. The dissident cleric Fethullah Gülen is based in the United States and clearly is being protected by powerful forces within the US security establishment. In the July 2016 coup, Erdogan was clearly slated for assassination but escaped and he knows the West is no longer an ally he can trust. In response to the failed coup he has initiated a massive purge, has escalated his war against the Kurds and has moved closer to Moscow. The Western media have largely misrepresented his moves. The media continues to protect the Western Establishment in obscuring both the context and actual course of events surrounding the coup. Thus Erdogan's actions which make sense in light of events are portrayed as grasping, aggressive, hostile and erratic.

And now he's being threatened with exclusion. If the West cuts him off his military will be hampered because until now the bulk of Turkish hardware and armament is Western in its origin. If NATO pulls the plug on Turkey their military will be left crippled and unable to resupply. Acquiring spare parts will become difficult and Ankara will be forced to resort to the open market.

Alliances and aid programmes are usually established in a way that makes it very difficult to break away. This is by design.

Erdogan wants to cut off the head of the serpent. In reality there are several heads but the one that will score him the most political points is that of Gülen himself. Sadly the Turkish state has resorted to going after Americans, like the pastor, Andrew Brunson who is virtually being held for ransom. The price is very simple.... hand over Gülen.

It's a brutal and unjust game but from Erdogan's perspective... it's only a matter of time before the next coup attempt takes place or he is assassinated. If he can take down Gülen, he may be able to finally consolidate his power... and maybe stand up to the West.

I don't believe he wants to completely break with Washington, and certainly not Europe. Being a NATO member has its advantages and yet for so long Turkey has been a pawn. Erdogan's long-term political project is to end this status and for Turkey to re-assert its historic position. He's not looking to conquer the Middle East and re-establish the caliphate. The empire he would build is commercial and cultural.

Erdogan is a wicked man and yet no more wicked than most of the other leaders of the world... even the many that pretend morality in the West.

We must pray for the pastor who has been incarcerated. I hope the charges are false and I believe they probably are. He's a pawn and the situation is unfortunate.

At the same time, while I do not celebrate Erdogan, I also do not celebrate or champion the powers that seek to take him down and replace him with a compliant supplicant.

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2018/05/06/Turkey-will-retaliate-if-US-ends-weapons-sales-minister-says/2761525611134/?utm_source=sec&utm_campaign=sl&utm_medium=10