These events are already
old news in terms of the high-tempo news cycle but they passed without proper
reflection.
To start with, the V4
countries are often spoken of in relation to anti-Semitism. Far Right parties
and politics are active in the V4 and thus it seems strange to many that they
would meet in Israel.
On one level it is
strange but there is an explanation. One, Likud itself is essentially an
ultra-nationalist party with a strong racist element. Its antecedents are found
in the days of the British Mandate and indeed there were forms of Jewish
Fascism that have been largely expunged from historical memory.
Likud was always
different in that their policies toward the Palestinians have a veritable
racial flavour to them and their posture toward the West Bank, Gaza and the
Settlements has rightly been labeled as akin to Apartheid. And no wonder for it
was Likud that forged a strong relationship with the Apartheid government in
South Africa throughout the 1980's. They were in many ways kindred spirits as
strange as that might sound.
Is there anti-Semitism in
the V4? Yes, there certainly is and yet the Central European group also shares
some common interests with Israel as well as a similar geopolitical mindset. In
fact Netanyahu even more than previous Likud prime ministers has been leading
the way in forging something of a Right-wing international. Israel is cutting
business deals, selling weapons and providing Special Forces training as
Netanyahu makes friends with many of the new leaders of the Right. The
V4-Israel conference has made the news but those following Netanyahu won't be
surprised. He's been reaching out to everyone from Kurz in Austria, to Modi and
Jair Bolsonaro.
Likud is willing to look
the other way as long as past anti-Semitism is acknowledged, something the
Poles are reticent to admit. From their vantage point Poland suffered more than
any other nation during the war. The Russians might counter that claim and yet
no one would dare argue the Poles didn't suffer and badly at that. And yet anti-Semitism
was a real problem in Poland before and even after the war. The many Nazi
collaborators throughout Europe are mostly forgotten and this amnesia has been deliberately
cultivated by various Establishment interests. If Poland admits their people
played even a small part in the Holocaust they will necessarily accept 'war
guilt' but they are defiant and will not hear it. They were overrun for almost
six years and caught between the Nazi hammer and the Soviet anvil their lands
became some of the worst killing fields of the war and they suffered a great
deal and were betrayed by virtually everyone... the West at the beginning of
the war, the Soviets at the end.
So there is some history
and Slovakia and Hungary certainly had their fascist elements and still do.
And yet in 2019 these
nations are all US allies with common interests and increasingly have become
important in terms of American geopolitical strategy. The V4 represents the
Anti-EU insurgency which has become all the more critical in light of the
Brexit disaster. The V4 nations are opposed to Brussels but unlike Italy and
Greece their resistance to the EU is on terms acceptable to Washington. Unlike
the V4 Italy has fallen prey to a populism and nationalism that opposes even
Washington's policies and undoubtedly the Atlantic Establishment would like to
see the 5-Star/Lega coalition removed and replaced by a Forza Italia
government.
Greece though ostensibly
ruled by a Leftist coalition is volatile and risks pulling out of the Euro and
maybe even the union itself. The United States wants a weak and dependent EU,
but at this point they want the union to remain in light of the Establishment's
Russia policy. They want the EU put in its place but they don't want it to
completely fragment. The V4 is perfectly positioned to fulfill this role.
The V4 has the potential
to represent Washington's interests in Brussels and these nations along with
Israel represent a political bloc that is American allied and while willing to
work with the EU is nevertheless not overly friendly with Brussels. Common
interests are driving them together and have the potential to affect policy
interests from Eastern Europe and Russia to the Middle East. Israel has never
gotten along with the EU and yet Israel wants allies and access. The V4 is an
open door and one welcomed by the Washington masters.
This informal bloc also
has the potential to drive the UK even more into Washington's grip as London
continues to find itself isolated. Or at some future date Washington could
facilitate an end-run around Europe and bring the UK into this growing if
informal bloc. But to be honest it's hard to imagine even if someone like Boris
Johnson were to take over as PM. Now if Nigel Farage and his new Brexit party
were to take over at No.10, then it would seem far more plausible.... but some
very radical changes would have to take place in the UK before that would
happen.
The Jerusalem meetings
more or less collapsed and some will celebrate this fact. History is not so
easily dismissed and despite a present willingness, the labyrinth of Central
and Eastern European history, especially surrounding the world wars is
difficult to say the least.
So in the end nothing
earth-shattering has occurred and yet the very fact that the meeting was being
organised sends a strong signal to Brussels – a signal of change and of
momentum.
Likewise other signals
are being sent. France and Germany continue to move together, almost forming a
ruling bloc within the EU. They have to know this will infuriate some,
especially nations like Italy, Greece and Spain and yet either Macron and
Merkel don't care or they're making preparations for a day in which the EU will
no longer be relevant.
And thus the symbolism of
the recently signed Aachen Treaty sends a powerful signal. Aachen, the capital
of Charlemagne and his empire that was centred on the lands that today are
France and Germany was the chosen locale to sign a treaty bringing Paris and
Berlin into an even closer and unified relationship, one meant to transcend even
the European Union.
There are military
aspects to this treaty designed to parallel and possibly survive a NATO
implosion. The coming unified European Army is of course 'bigger' than the
Aachen Treaty and yet France and Germany will undoubtedly play major even
dominant roles within it.
Additionally since
Germany has never been able to secure a seat on the UN Security Council this
unity agreement with regard to foreign policy will ensure Berlin (via Paris)
has at least some voice within the UNSC.
Germany has signalled for
some time that it wishes to enter the international theatre and given the scope
and influence of its economy the once pariah nation is no longer willing to sit
on the sidelines and avoid participation in military interventions abroad.
Another significant marker in this regard is the recent opening of the new BND headquarters. The BND or Bundesnachtrichtendienst
is the German equivalent of the CIA. As successor to the Gehlen Organisation
the BND has long been a tool of Washington and NATO. And yet under Obama and
especially Trump that relationship has been damaged and is at present in a
somewhat volatile state.
The new headquarters are
grandiose and have been relocated to Berlin itself.... the old Imperial city
that once more wishes to reassert itself not just in Europe but globally.
These developments will
not be celebrated in Washington as they signal fragmentation and rivalry to Washington's
interests and also indicate the growing angst regarding the Atlantic order, the
future of both the Euro and the Eurozone and NATO itself. These moves by groups
like the Aachen bloc and the V4 are examples of prudent calculation,
safety-nets to fall back on in case the outer mechanisms and forms are shattered.
This is an age of uncertainty and while the hopes that arose in the aftermath
of 1989 are not yet utterly dashed, they hang by threads and the wind is
blowing.... a century old wind of fear.
But there's also a
dynamism at work in these blocs. From Aachen to V4 to the V4/Israeli platform,
all are being forced to look to their own interests in light of the growing
instability emanating from Washington. Berlin and Paris feel betrayed. The V4
is willing to work with Washington due to common interests and Israel of course
remains in an extremely cozy alliance with the United States.
However, American
standing is volatile and its future uncertain. The political polarisation, signs
of economic stress and the indicators of reckless and unprincipled foreign
policy are leading all these players to take either a step back, or at least a
step to the side. While V4 member Poland is entirely on board with the
Anti-Moscow campaign which is deeply rooted in parts of the US Establishment,
nations like Hungary are more cautious. Berlin and Paris are certainly wary of
Moscow (and Moscow of them) but unlike the UK they are unwilling to put their
own interests at risk in pursuing what is perceived as an emotional and even
irrational drive toward conflict with the Kremlin. Moscow must have mixed
feelings. Given the history there's no way Russia wants to see a strong Germany
rise once more. And yet, the Aachen agreement signals a weakening of NATO and
the power of the American Empire on the European continent... something Moscow
will certainly celebrate.
Even Israel, a nation that
often works symbiotically with Washington is exercising caution in light of US
instability. Can Tel Aviv trust Washington in pinch? They'd like to think so
but in the meantime they live in a rough neighbourhood and friendly relations
with Putin will go a long way in terms of Syria and Iran. Israel at times seems
to pursue its own policies and while I don't doubt some in the United States are
irritated by Tel Aviv's friendly relations with Moscow, the truth is the
relationship facilitates a means of US influence and it leaves some doors and
possibilities open.
The United States is
reaching out in multiple directions and the geopolitical game board is in a
process of recalibration and yet for all the power politics being exercised by
the United States, the Empire is in danger of losing its influence and in an
increasing multipolar world, the fears of some in the US Establishment are
coming true. Trump is certainly to blame and yet George W. Bush is really the
president that began the process of breaking the old order. Obama proved weak
and though willing was unable to shore up or stabilise the Atlantic power
structure. And now in just two years Trump (under the aegis of figures like
Bannon and Bolton) has decimated it.
Though many in the US
Congress sought to counter the Trump administration by showing support for
Atlanticism at the recent NATO conference, the Pence speech was met with
hostility and if history continues on this course it will mark a watershed
moment in which the fissure in the Atlantic wall began to separate.... to the
point that daylight can now be seen between the segments. The wall is facing an
impending collapse and while its preservation is not something that is
marketable in campaign terms there will be many in the US Establishment
desperate to see Trump removed in 2020 (if not before) in order to salvage the
Atlantic order.
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