Belgium, Nuclear Weapons and the Breaking of Atlanticism

https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/belgium-debates-phase-out-of-us-nuclear-weapons-on-its-soil/

In light of Trump's posture towards NATO, one would find it hardly surprising to learn the Belgians don't want to find themselves as a frontline state in the case of a conflict with Russia. Why should they endure the risk without the reward?

The reward being the benefits of Atlanticism and the protections afforded by Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. The mutual defense (an attack on one NATO member is an attack an all) doctrine has been cast in doubt by Trump as he indicated he might not honour it.

And yet in possessing nuclear weapons Belgium is most certainly a primary target were a war to break out. Why risk it?

Additionally Trump continues to break the decades-long tradition of Atlanticism on all fronts. NATO is under stress, conventional forms of diplomacy are broken and trade is in doubt. Again, why host nuclear weapons for a power that is working against you?

But there's an additional point and it's the one that makes the Washington Establishment the most nervous. It's a signal that Europe is preparing to go its own way. NATO was always first and foremost a mechanism for American control of its European satellites. It manipulated the politics of these countries and controlled them throughout the Cold War. The trade-off was security a point that was always subject to dispute and debate within these countries.

NATO survived the end of the Cold War by re-casting itself and for the first time employing the use of arms. And yet the EU project and the American push for Unipolarity have reached the crisis point under Trump. Europe is pushing toward an EU military command, its own armed forces. The EU Establishment while divided on these questions has to know that such a force would also help to galvanise a commitment to Europe. Germany has pushed toward re-armament and has indicated it wants to get more involved in world affairs and in military operations in places like Africa. An EU force and foreign conflict would also help to deflect the growing nationalism within the EU. That's a cynical thing to say but I'm afraid it's true and I'm certain there are more than a few political and military leaders that realise this.

US power is on the wane under Trump and while the EU is stressed, these moves are attempts to salvage the project. There are those within the EU (such as Macron and other elements in Germany) that want to see the relationship with Russia re-evaluated. The US posture of hostility, militarism and sabre-rattling is not in their interest and removing the nuclear weapons from Belgium is both a signal and outworking of this thought trajectory.