In Belarus, there's a pending presidential election due to take place
on 9 August 2020. To no one's real surprise the candidate posing a viable
threat to Alexander Lukashenko (who has been president since 1994) has been
arrested. Sergei Tikhanovsky, a dissident blogger turned presidential candidate
was arrested and charged with collaborating with Russian mercenaries in order
to foment unrest. It's a pretty sensational story.
And now in light of his arrest, his wife Svetlana Tikhanovskaya has
stepped up and is running in his place. She has no political experience but has
nevertheless become a serious contender as she is riding an anti-Lukashenko (mostly
grass roots) wave. There is genuine social outrage regarding Lukashenko's rule –
exacerbated of course by the West which has long sought to remove him and
extend the boundaries of NATO to the very frontiers of Russia itself.
Lukashenko is of course anxious regarding the forces moving against
him. The relationship with longtime ally Moscow has grown shaky in recent years,
especially out of fears that Moscow is seeking to ensure that Belarus stays
within its orbit. This has led Lukashenko to resist Moscow at certain points. These
moves by Moscow, coupled with increasing Western agitation have isolated the
nation and Lukashenko is feeling the pressure from all sides.
Moscow has been worried that Lukashenko would cave and capitulate to
the West or worse that he'd be overthrown in a CIA-orchestrated 'colour'
revolution. They're not going to just sit by and watch it happen. They're also
moving their chess pieces into position.
And so it is in the midst of this context that Lukashenko has lashed
out and accused Moscow of sending mercenaries into his country in order to
thwart the election and see him removed – presumably replaced with a
Moscow-friendly puppet.
If it's true, it would be a risky move indeed as the West will
continue to tolerate Lukashenko as a pariah but if Moscow was caught replacing
him – that would likely provoke a pretty severe response – and one that would
certainly and rather quickly involve Ukraine.
I suppose Trump's enemies could say that Putin has been emboldened by
America's absenteeism. Maybe so, but I think that's wishful thinking and
despite the reporting flowing from outlets like CNN and BBC, Trump has hardly
been friendly to Russia. What he has done is agitate France and Germany which
some critics will point out has weakened NATO especially at a critical moment.
And it must be noted that despite Trump's actions and sometime
inaction, there are forces within the American government that have continued
to aggressively push against Russia whether or not the White House is on board.
Trump's control of the American ship of state is actually rather weak –
in some respects he's one of the weakest presidents in memory. If he really had
the cunning of an authoritarian he would have capitalised on the crisis of Covid-19
and used it to expand his power. Instead it has revealed his utter impotence
and we watched state governors come to the fore – filling the power vacuum left
by a president that had all but abdicated his leadership role. In diplomatic
terms, he's been a total failure and has no signature accomplishments he can
point to.
Putin is many things but he's not reckless. Despite how the move was
perceived in the West, his 2014 seizure of the Crimea was calculated and
largely dependent upon popular support in the peninsula itself – something he
clearly had. Because unlike the analyst-mouthpieces in the Western media, Putin
actually pays attention to history and with regard to Crimea – history was on
Moscow's side.
One cannot help but wonder if this charge of mercenary interference is
a ploy on the part of Lukashenko. It's interesting how Wagner, the
state-connected Russian mercenary firm, keeps showing up in the news. As I've
written elsewhere this recent portrait of the company is also misleading when
it's placed alongside of similar Western and state-connected corporations.
If Lukashenko can convince his public and perhaps some of the
international community that the Russians are interfering, it will buy him
time, allow him to claim emergency powers and in that interim – sort things out,
probably in a fairly brutal fashion. Its timing is rather convenient and indeed
nothing unifies a politically divided country like an external threat. And
undoubtedly large segments of the Belarusian population are worried about
falling under Moscow's control. Little do they realise that such a regime might
actually be an improvement over the rule of Lukashenko.
Of course the Western media loves the 'Russian interference' angle and
is doing all it can to play up the issue. Most of the public (especially in the
United States) doesn't care about Belarus or even know where it's located. But
among the educated classes and the jet-set, the story is getting reaction.
Because either way, the chaos serves the West's purposes when it comes to
Belarus. A discredited Lukashenko and the further demonisation of Putin is
exactly what the Western Establishment would like to see.
And I have absolutely no doubts that the US is doing what it can at
this moment to funnel money into the street demonstrations and through back
channels – the Tikhanovskaya campaign.
And of course while the American public is distracted by other
concerns everyone in Central and Eastern Europe is aware of the fact that
thousands of troops are in the process of being relocated from Germany to new
forward bases in Poland – up until now focused mainly on the Russian
Kaliningrad enclave but they could just as easily be re-tasked for NATO
operations directed to Belarus – something both Lukashenko and Putin are very
conscious of.
There is a danger of Belarus being set up as the next Ukraine but the
stakes are in some sense higher as tensions are heightened and every party is
fully expecting the others to act. Ukraine is a bigger prize than Belarus but
the struggle over Belarus takes place in light of Ukraine – which heightens its
status to be sure.
The activists involved had best be careful – which I'm sure they won't
be – but if they think Lukashenko is bad they may find the alternatives or
simply the alternative of unrest and social breakdown (or even war) is far
worse. They want Lukashenko gone. Be careful what you wish for.
See also:
Arresting Americans – a ploy by Lukashenko or are these agents? It could be either or both.
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