Taiwan Warnings

Taiwan watchers are nervous as there are some indications that China may act in light of an outbreak of election-related chaos in the United States. The argument is that if the transition of US power is in question and there is civil and economic upheaval, Beijing may decide to make its move against Taiwan.

Indeed there are indications that Beijing is staging military forces and making some kind of possible preparations.

And yet not all of these moves are offensive. This is the part being missed by Western media. The US has also been stoking the fires of regional tension and in addition to its naval and air activities, Washington is preparing to arm Taiwan with weaponry that could cause serious damage to mainland China and as such these weapons (and the current Washington and Taipei administrations) are viewed as a very serious threat.

Beijing's moves are also a response to this. The tension is building regardless of election chaos and there's just as much fear that Trump may do something erratic in order to win the election or solidify power in its aftermath.

Though not given much attention here, the US is making counter moves – but ones with plausible deniability. A new fighter squadron is being formed in Japan. B-1 bombers are concentrating in Guam for an exercise. The official numbers cannot be trusted as the reality on the ground is often different than what is reported and there are technical designations regarding the nature of the duty that allow the military to lie – even while claiming to tell the truth. I've seen this firsthand.

The Trump camp suggests that Beijing would like Biden to win the US election and the Mainstream media has strengthened this narrative by their reporting of Chinese interference – as if the country weren't already divided.

Does China in fact want a Biden victory? Stability is probably desirable but there's also no indication he would back down or be 'soft' on Taiwan. In fact if anything he might attempt to rekindle the TPP agreements which were in play under Obama – an economic platform that Beijing did not want to see implemented.

Does China want Trump? Some think so but apart from rash comments and weapons sales, there's also no indication that he would take a hard-line on Taiwan. He's pushing Beijing but there's no real strategy at work and he's done nothing to organise or declare a solid policy. In fact it's more likely that were a crisis to erupt, Trump would back down. He's a roll of the dice. He might do something crazy but he's easily influenced and we've also seen him get weak-kneed.

Regardless this global hot spot demands watching. Growing numbers of analysts are getting worried that the tension can't hold much longer. There are several hundred thousand Christians in Taiwan not to mention large concentrations in the southern mainland of China. A war by any measure would be disastrous.

In the end the US doesn't really care about Taiwan and its people. The American Establishment cares about its Pacific Empire and China is putting it under threat. Taiwan is being used as a red line or line in the sand. It is becoming the concentration point of the tensions and the US is investing its energies there. For China this island, but 112 miles off its mainland has been a point of contention for over seventy years. But a massive US presence (even if peripheral) and staged armaments will be (from China's perspective) an existential threat akin to Soviet missiles being placed in Cuba. It won't be allowed to stand.