Russian Eyes on the Red Sea

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2020/12/09/russia-naval-base-sudan/

Given that the US government has already demonstrated considerable influence over the new government in Khartoum, this naval base agreement with Russia was something of a surprise. When considers the overwhelming pressure the US has put on its allies regarding Huawei and 5G networks, surely Washington could have come up with enough pressures, incentives, and even threats to dissuade the Sudanese government from cutting a deal like this. So what happened?

It's possibly a sign that the new government is not in total control or that despite the unified front there are rival factions and thus some serious political struggles going on. Normally I would say it's a government attempting to triangulate and avoid putting all their eggs in one basket. That may be the case but that's usually the sign of a mature government with established policy. The coup government has barely been in control a year and I don't think that explains this development.

This will of course play into the already white-hot campaign in the West that Russia is an ever-present and growing threat to US interests and the world at large. This sort of thing makes it easy to paint them as expansionist even though the US is the region's primary meddler and outstrips Russia and China combined by at least fifty times over.

And yet there is an irony – Putin's global role is becoming something of a self-fulfilled prophecy. He's been painted as the aggressor even while the aggression has been on the part of the West. And so in response given that he cannot merely play 'defense' and hope to stave off the US-led campaign, he's gone on the offensive and seeks to entangle and tie up US interests outside his borders - a kind of Bush-like strategy of 'better to fight them over there than here'.

Russia like China wants to make sure that the global choke points remain open and don't fall exclusively under US-NATO control. The Red Sea as part of the Suez Canal-Horn of Africa network is certainly one of these points. It's key pathway for shipping, and navies are interested as the area is infested with pirates – and is also a hub for East African oil. And for Russia the proximity of Port Said (the northern terminus of the canal) to the Black Sea and its southern ports remains important.

In addition to 'pushing back' at the US in the region, it's also a strategic move for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) which seeks to establish itself as a Eurasian counter to NATO. The Middle East, Levant, and Northeast Africa are on its periphery – part of the fault line between their interests and that of NATO, the United States, and the European Union. And yet the SCO is not as unified as NATO (which itself has developed significant cracks). Turkey is straddling these spheres and India is also part of the organisation even though its enemies Pakistan and China are as well. The SCO is a framework – strong at points, very weak at others.

And it is in that framework that the move can be understood as both an SCO advance even while it's also a micro-aggression (to borrow a popular term) against China – in this case while they are both opposed to the US, they are also rivals.

This move is also further evidence of the vacuum created by the Trump administration. While his state department certainly supported the coup and while the CIA may be active in places like Sudan, the mortar that binds it all together and the framework that sustains it and establishes the relationship falls to the State Department and diplomacy. This is where Trumpism fails so miserably. They can throw their weight around, shake things up, and pitch their line – but to borrow from marketing lingo, they can't close the deal and establish the alliance. Sudan is beholden to the US and under its influence, but the US hasn't taken the steps that would grant the new regime what it needs most – security.

It's like the mafia – in fact very much like the mafia. The godfather earns loyalty and respect but he also has to take care of those under him. Some become partners and loyal – but are also paid and rewarded. Others are merely paid and their loyalty only goes as far as the next cash infusion. But Trumpism rests on a premise of demanding loyalty for loyalty's sake coupled with threats and fear. And then there's no real interest, no attempt to use soft power in order to help the partner nation – which every student of political science also knows increases the power and influence of the patron country.

Trumpism leaves a vacuum and it was inevitable that the Sudanese government would look outside for investment and help. Putin for his part would rather see a Russian base there than a British, French, German or even a Chinese base instead.

The Red Sea-Horn of Africa region is starting to get awfully crowded. There are a lot of navies operating in the region. It has the potential to become a flashpoint which is why everyone is also carefully monitoring the situation in Ethiopia.