An American Military Presence in the Caucasus Sold as Peace

https://eurasianet.org/trump-brokers-potentially-game-changing-deal-with-armenia-azerbaijan

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/07/us-deal-armenia-azerbaijan-00499285

I must say if this deal holds and comes to fruition, it will be quite the feather in Donald Trump's cap. Or if it goes wrong, it may be viewed by historians in terms of folly and provocation.

As I've written about previously, there were fears of another conflict as Azerbaijan was sending signals that it wanted to forge a land connection to its Nakhchivan exclave by means of a corridor across Armenia's southern Syunik Province. This Zangezur Corridor would be just wide enough to support infrastructure such as roads, rails, and pipelines. But the proposed 27 mile long swath would break Armenia's border with Iran - a border that supports a great deal of trade and is also utilized by Russia to circumvent US sanctions.

Trump's people stepped in and proposed a US lease in which the corridor would be handed over to American management for 99 years. Azerbaijan would get what it wants - unobstructed secure travel back and forth between contiguous Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan exclave.

Armenia saves face in that the territory is not simply handed over to Baku - or conquered. Armenian President Pashinyan can say the territory is still technically Armenia and Yerevan retains its border with Iran. At least that's how he's trying to sell it.

The US gets infrastructure contracts and at the very least a strategic observation/espionage outpost on the border of Iran. There's no talk of a military presence at the moment but of course an incident or two could change the equation.

Additionally, it's unclear as to whether the US will permit sanctioned Iranian and Russian trade from passing through this America-controlled zone. It seems unlikely and so it's safe to say Tehran and Moscow are big losers here.

Additionally, Erdogan is probably not overly thrilled with this solution. This was to be a boon for Türkiye and still will be to some extent as the Central Asian trade and pipeline pathway will pass through Zangezur into Nakhchivan and from there into Türkiye and on to the Black Sea. But the Americans will be involved when it comes to the Zangezur transit.

The big losers in reality are the Armenians. Pashinyan is trying to sell this as a diplomatic victory but Armenia gets nothing. They retain a token claim to the territory and border (that was already theirs) but they've lost autonomy and the Americans will have a say in what occurs there. They receive no benefits. They were thrown a conciliatory bone. The nation which has lost everything, including Nagorno-Karabakh (or Artsakh) and now this....

During the 1970's and 1980's the Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia (ASALA) worked alongside the PKK and alongside the Greeks in attacking Turkish interests. After the group's leader was gunned down in Athens in 1988, they disbanded a few years later - and as of now (2025) the PKK has declared itself to be at an end. It would seem the age of anti-Turkish militancy has come to an end.

Maybe.

Personally give the polarisation in Armenia, it's not too hard to imagine something like ASALA emerging to resist not just the Western tilt of Pashinyan which is viewed as a betrayal by some, but the treachery of the Turks and the Americans. By Turks, I include the Azeris. The anti-Pashinyan factions (while angry with Moscow) still look to Russia as a natural ally in their struggle against the West and its cultural pollutions. It's too early to say, but I can envision a scenario in which Putin supports such groups.

To many of these Armenians, the Pashinyan-Trump deal rewards Azerbaijan for its aggression and there's nothing in terms of reparations regarding Nagorno-Karabakh. I can only imagine the rage brewing in some Armenian quarters. The American Armenian community is also upset. They thought they had made great gains over the past decade but this deal is de facto surrendering of more Armenian territory even if by means of smoke and mirrors it's somehow kept officially out of Azeri hands.

With this deal the US has a strategic foothold in the South Caucasus and this 'interest' gives it a reason to intervene in the politics of the region. It has people and infrastructure to protect and as the energy (and the money it represents) starts flowing out of Central Asia, the US can tie in energy policy and economic concerns. This is a disaster for Tehran and Moscow and I can't imagine they're going to sit by and watch it happen.

An Armenian resistance is the natural course and if Tehran and Moscow can use them as proxies - they certainly will.

Trump touts this as a peace deal - in yet another chapter of sycophancy, the corridor will be named TRIPP - the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity. I have to believe this is anything but.

And what will this mean for the American Evangelicals who have in recent years come to embrace the ethnic Christian communities of Armenia? Will they reverse course? Will they try and support these people - even as they oppose the West? Like the Balkans, the Caucasus are very complicated and it's easy to get lost.

See also: 

 https://proto-protestantism.blogspot.com/2025/07/erdogan-kurds-and-caucasus.html