NATO is the real foundation of American power for Eurasia,
but a collapsing EU could also rend NATO asunder.
This (in part) explains Obama's trip to London. This issue is
beginning to seriously divide the Tories and it will be interesting to see how
this plays out. London mayor Boris Johnson is rolling the dice, he'll either
score a great victory or it may be the end of him.
Other nations are beginning to stir. There's now a growing
discussion regarding a 'Frexit' a French exit of the EU. The survey shows that
the majority of the French public would vote to stay in but the fact that it's
being discussed and the numbers seem to be growing should be a cause for
concern to Brussels and those who believe in the project.
If Front National (FN) continues to rise the issues will
certainly be revisited.
That said, the French Right in a way reminiscent of the
American Right misunderstands the nature of the EU. The EU is France and Germany. They are the backbone of the European order.
Britain doesn't really want to be part of that order (diminishing the status of
the UK) but they also fear it growing too strong and Britain not having a voice
in its trajectory.
French membership in the EU empowers France and makes it by
default a European and world leader. Its removal would weaken its hand and in
all probability break the EU. LePen and other nationalists may have a different
vision of France but will they be able to deal with the fallout when the French
economy is shaken to its very foundations?
I am interested in the geopolitical fallout but most of all I
think about the Christians who live in Europe, the scattered congregations of
the Biblically minded and faithful who seek to live their lives and bear
witness. The EU project has for many years been something of a Babel project.
The EU even borrowed the imagery at one point. Nationalism suppressed is a good
thing especially for the Church, but the values of a Neo-Babel are also
problematic.
The fall of the EU will mean a rapid return of nationalist
sentiment, instability and probably violence. It will destroy one Babel project
but it will be replaced by many miniaturised versions... many of which are even
more dangerous for the members of the Body of Christ. Remember in the end
Christianity is subversive. Political models which are accommodationist are
probably better (easier to live under) than those that are narrow and
restrictive.
We will continue to watch and pray for wisdom.
I found the discussion of milatarizing the EU a key point. As it stands, the EU can be a helpful tool in US hands, but it lacks the teeth (though a united economic policy is pretty strong) to challenge US hegemony in Europe and abroad.
ReplyDeleteAs it is now, the EU is a good solution, minimizing nationalism. But European can become itself a Nation. In violent and extreme form, this is what motivates people like Andrei Brevik (on one side of the spectrum). But it's behind the bigoted politics of a Geert Wilders and other European nationalists who garner support against the Muslim Other. While not one to one, as some commentators point out, the Muslim is becoming the new Jew of Europe.
It doesn't seem like they can forge a Euro identity. If things degenerate the scenario that may help them do that is a scary one... A demagogue who makes it a battle of 'us' (White Christian Europe) vs. 'them' (Muslim immigrants).
ReplyDeleteI don't think Europe can challenge the US militarily but if it ever withdrew its support (the breaking of NATO) it would destroy the US geopolitical voice and narrative.