Sino-Indian Tensions and the Wider Implications

https://www.economist.com/news/asia/21727125-their-stand-reflects-far-deeper-tensions-china-and-india-are-showing-muscle-their-border

*I wrote this about a week ago and didn't manage to publish it until now. As of today (29Aug2017), both sides have initiated a stand down/de-escalation process. Nevertheless it wouldn't take much for the tensions to be re-kindled and it's always there ready to explode. It had been for more than fifty years. The point being that a US war with North Korea and the American relationship with New Delhi have wider Asian implications.

This is a story that's not getting a lot of coverage but it bears watching. The implications are potentially massive.

India and China have long been at odds and there have been several military clashes and even a brief war fought in 1962. Their source of conflict often centres on disputed borders. The mountainous region separating the two Asian giants is remote as solid borders were never established or agreed upon. The British (while in India) had always pushed north during a time when China was weak.

The conclusion of World War II changed everything. India was partitioned and China was resurgent in the wake of the Civil War and the expulsion of foreign influence. With the Chinese annexation of Tibet and India's sheltering of the Dalai Lama, the rivalry and suspicion intensified. Pakistan fell into the Chinese orbit and since 9/11, the US has continued to push into both Central Asia and the maritime regions approaching the South China Sea. During the Cold War, India was almost an enemy of Washington and Pakistan was the close ally that facilitated both Nixon's rapprochement with China and the CIA's war against the Soviets in Afghanistan.

And yet in recent years, even while Bush was still president things began to shift. Pakistan became alienated and elements within it have grown hostile to the relationship with the US, though they cannot fully escape it. Additionally Washington began to turn to India, sharing nuclear technology, bolstering trade and in recent years incorporating India into the 'pivot to Asia' agenda.

India, now a frontline state in a virtual military alliance with Washington has joined the Anti-Beijing programme. To the astonishment of many, Trump openly called for Indian involvement in US projects in Afghanistan and Central Asia. This has been a source of tension for years as both Pakistan and China have watched with alarm as New Delhi has sought to assert itself in the region. The US has openly declared its intention to stay in Afghanistan. Trump reversed his campaign promise to end the foreign interventions and is now going to increase the number of troops. Another little bit of information that many missed is that Trump suggested the Afghans help to pay for the war. Originally the US interest was in the realm of pipelines and the exploitation of Central Asian resources. Now, it is well known that Afghanistan is rich in minerals and the US wants to appropriate this resource.

Of course the notion that this stolen wealth will somehow 'pay' for or 'reimburse' the costs of the war is absurd. The contracts will go to private corporations who will now mine the riches of the Hindu Kush at the expense of the American taxpayer as they will be guarded by the United States military. Wall Street will reap a rich harvest and the public will get the bill. This is standard Capitalism in the Imperialist phase.

The present conflict between India and China is over the border near Bhutan but this has to be understood within the context of the great conflict going back to the 1950's. Then add in the contest for Central Asia, Pakistani politics, the US imperial agenda for the whole of Asia and China's determination to check these forces.

The situation is tense but not likely to explode into a large-scale war.

But then there's North Korea and this is where this situation becomes potentially dangerous for the wider region and the world. If the situation with Pyongyang escalates and turns into some form of open war then there is a real possibility of chain reaction. Suddenly everyone is moving, everyone is on edge and things could spiral out of control. God forbid, but this is how a world war could start and we're talking about a part of the world that is inhabited by billions of people and certainly millions of professing Christians.

Whether you agree with Trump's handling of North Korea or not, the recent moves by the United States with regard to India and Trump's recent exhortations for their further involvement can only be described as dangerous and irresponsible.