The (Tel-Aviv – Riyadh – Washington) Triple Alliance and the Dangerous Game

http://www.aljazeera.com/blogs/middleeast/2017/11/saudi-arabia-game-thobes-171105162806956.html

This is another story which seems to change by the day and the hour. This link while interesting is already outdated. Hariri is back in Lebanon and has rescinded his resignation and Saleh who broke with the Houthi's is now dead.

There's a great game afoot in the Middle East and the recent moves by the Saudis indicate that the situation has escalated. Whether the Saudis are 'stepping up' or becoming desperate depends on one's interpretation of events.

There has been an effective coup in Riyadh. A more aggressive and belligerent faction (now under the young Salman) has taken control. Old players are being purged, and princes are being killed, sometimes in dramatic fashion.

A series of events has led to a Saudi crisis. Ironically one of the markers that signalled the beginning of the crisis was the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. This destroyed the balance of power in the Middle East and gave an advantage to Iran. Washington pursues its own agenda and repeatedly has demonstrated that it has little regard for its allies.

Since 2003 the Middle East has been on fire and it's nowhere near being extinguished. Clearly Lebanon is being set up for a potential conflict. The Saudi-Israeli-US alliance has marked Hezbollah for destruction and Lebanon is a gateway to rekindling and reshaping the situation in Syria.

This is connected to the dramatic events surrounding Lebanese PM Hariri's visit to Saudi Arabia. Was he prisoner? It still isn't clear. Hariri who has deep to ties to the Saudis, is particularly connected to figures that have been ousted and are out of favour. The Saudi alliance is upset because Hariri's government has committed an unforgivable sin. It's working with Hezbollah which is largely understood to function as an Iranian proxy. Hezbollah which controls much of Southern Lebanon is essential to maintaining peace in Beirut and Hariri realises this. No one in Lebanon wants to restart the devastating civil war.

Additionally the deal was meant to block Syrian influence as the Assad's had for so long dominated their country. Hezbollah while hardly hostile to Assad is looking out for its own interests and no one knows what the future holds for Damascus. That said Hezbollah was quite eager to play their part in the Syrian War and did much to help defeat ISIS particularly in the South. This too has angered the Sunni forces in the Gulf (and the members of what I have labeled the Triple Alliance) which have to varying degrees supported both al Nusra (al Qaeda) and ISIS and any force that will fight the war against Assad.

The Saudis are additionally angling to break Qatar which they view as a rogue threat in the gulf. Doha hosts Al Jazeera and is backing the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt as well as certain factions in Libya. This is why the situation is becoming so grave. It's spreading. Tensions in Egypt, the Civil War in Libya, the situation in the Palestinian Territories, brewing trouble in Lebanon, the Syrian Civil War, Kurdistan, Yemen, the Gulf Crisis, the internal Saudi crisis, questions regarding the Iranian Nuclear Treaty with the West... all these things are related and as the puzzle grows more complicated there are just that many more opportunities for things to quickly unravel and escalate.

The Saudis are at a turning point. There are many debates over the state of global oil, fossil fuels and energy supplies. For years researchers and commentators, often dismissed by official academia have argued oil has peaked and the world faces hitherto unknown stress resulting from population growth, declining resource availability and the nature of the new tech economy.

These arguments are sometimes dismissed and with seeming plausibility as new technologies develop. Indeed the newly developed form of hydraulic fracturing has driven prices down and opened up new reservoirs of oil and gas for extraction. Yet, the clock is ticking. And for nations like Saudi Arabia the instability is unsustainable. A couple of years ago the Saudis seemed to be collaborating with the US in driving down oil prices. It was hurting nations like Russia, Iran, Venezuela and other adversaries of the Washington-Riyadh alliance. The Saudis could weather the storm but in addition to the glut, a largely unreported (and statistically manipulated) decline in global economic growth and commodity demands has kept the market low and now the Saudis are hurting and a crisis has ensued.

In the meantime their interests and sway are under threat and in addition to their old rivalry with Tehran they face new rivals like Qatar... who at times will work with Tehran to counter the Saudis.

In a state of shock and turmoil, forces within the Saudi aristocracy have moved to oust the old guard and (as they see it) rescue the interests of the Saud dynasty and their version of Sunni Islam. Under new leadership the future of the House of Saud and even the nature of the kingdom will be transformed. Though almost imperceptible by Western standards bin Salman is set to loosen up the strict Wahhabi regime. Civil war may ensue. It's too early to tell. The implications of such an event for both the Middle East and the world economy are hard to gauge.

They (the forces surrounding prince bin Salman) could not have done this without US support which the Trump administration and the hawks surrounding him have willingly given. While there are some mild protests against civilian deaths in Yemen and the severity and instability of the Qatar blockade, the Trump administration continues to support Riyadh. The map of the Middle East is being redrawn but the costs and consequences are terrible and their full import has not yet been felt.

The war is on... the endless war for control of the world's resources. This is what 9/11 and everything that has followed is really all about. Who will master the world?

In the meantime the Wall Street connected US administration is happy to profit from the turmoil. Weapons sales are soaring. With the demand for weapons comes training and further expansion. There is great money to be made off the wars in Yemen and Libya. Egypt is a potential goldmine for US weapons manufacturers. Al-Sisi is eager to gain Washington's support and Tel-Aviv is eager to keep him in power. One way he can do this is by deeply investing his regime in the American system. It provides security and grants him a voice. Of course it also means that he is owned and that the US-connected Egyptian military will oust him if he gets out of line.

For the Israelis, they want to strike while the iron is hot. For years they have feared certainly feared Sunni extremism but their real enemies have been in the form of Arab Nationalism, figures like Nasser, Assad and Saddam Hussein. Apart from Arab Nationalism their greatest enemy is found in Iran and its allies. This doubles their hatred for Assad (as he is by some definitions in both camps) and they would use this period to weaken Iran by removing him. In order to salvage the Syria failure they (with the members of the alliance) appear ready to turn up the heat in Lebanon which as mentioned before will give Tel-Aviv another opportunity to take on Hezbollah. A broken Syria and a weakened Iran will also represent a defeat for Moscow as it will lose what little influence it has in the Middle East.

The question of Turkey and what will happen with the Kurds is one of the great wildcards of the moment. The Kurds have run out of friends and Erdogan is dancing some very complicated steps. He hopes to come out of this morass a step closer to his Neo-Ottoman aspirations, with Turkey itself transformed. But the dance has grown rather complicated and he could find himself isolated and once more in danger.

I had to chuckle though at one point during the Hariri incident. The French intervened. It's not yet clear (to me) where Macron stands. He may in this case be following in the footsteps of Sarkozy. If so, he was using France's traditional outsider role to (in all actuality) represent NATO's interests in the affair.

But I think not. I think the bin Salman moves are backed by the Trump faction and it's more likely that Macron was 'stepping in' and probably irritated some folks back in Washington. It would hardly be the first time the French have played a spoiler role to Washington's aspirations in the Middle East, let alone Africa.

The region is dancing on a knife-edge and the world is feeling very dangerous just now.