N.B.- I had to make some changes to this article. Modi has just stunned everyone by cutting a deal with Putin. The narrative has shifted. These moves will certainly be the talk of the town for the people within the military-intelligence complex. For them this shift will be a far bigger story than the Supreme Court circus.
The information here is hardly earth-shattering but nevertheless indicates and confirms a few points.
India is clearly expanding its military and making plans for
the possibilities of a two-front war. The ever closer Pakistan-China alliance
and the fact that India has fought wars with both countries means that New Delhi
believes it must plan accordingly. A future conflict could quickly become
multi-faceted and escalate into a regional war.
France has once again stepped in to fulfill its traditional
role of the Western alternative. Even while Modi is moving India ever closer to
Washington he's being cautious. Times change and India's now obsolete Soviet
weaponry is evidence of this. Alliances have shifted and New Delhi is no longer
in a position to do business with Moscow, or so it has been assumed until now. Modi has stunned the West, while moving close to Washington over the past several years he has recently pivoted and made overtures to Moscow. Clearly he wishes to diversify and ensure that his country doesn't become merely a US satellite or dependency.
An outside purchase allows him to diversify his military and this is where on so many occasions the French have stepped in to fill the gap.
An outside purchase allows him to diversify his military and this is where on so many occasions the French have stepped in to fill the gap.
They make top-notch weaponry, that's compatible with NATO
formularies and yet outside the purview of the United States. India is hardly
the first country to utilise France in such a manner. It irritates Washington
to be sure but at this point they would rather see nations purchase weapons
from France than from Moscow.
And yet Modi has now taken a further step and risked Washington's ire in purchasing an S-400 missile battery from Russia, risking even US sanctions as a result. Why? This is a question that will certainly be kicked around in the Pentagon, Langley and in the think tanks. Clearly Modi's faith in Washington has been shaken and he doesn't want to be fully on board with US policy. My initial guess would be the shift in tone and posture that has taken place under Trump. While Modi is no friend of Beijing, he doesn't want to get pulled into a war, and perhaps that's where he sees that Trump is headed.
And yet Modi has now taken a further step and risked Washington's ire in purchasing an S-400 missile battery from Russia, risking even US sanctions as a result. Why? This is a question that will certainly be kicked around in the Pentagon, Langley and in the think tanks. Clearly Modi's faith in Washington has been shaken and he doesn't want to be fully on board with US policy. My initial guess would be the shift in tone and posture that has taken place under Trump. While Modi is no friend of Beijing, he doesn't want to get pulled into a war, and perhaps that's where he sees that Trump is headed.
Additionally the story points to a larger narrative that
transcends both Paris and New Delhi and that is the role of weapons manufacture
and sales within imperialist economies.
These companies form a huge component of the economy, play
prominent roles in the exchange markets and thus are very much on the mind of
diplomats and other strategists. The Communist Bloc had its weapons trade to be
sure but within a capitalist framework these industries take on a prominent
even existential role. They become both a means and an end, an essential aspect
of economic growth and a tool in the hands of the state department and foreign
offices.
The charges of corruption are being made by the Congress
Party led by Rahul Gandhi, a scion of the Nehru-Gandhi clan. For Americans only
the Kennedys can compare to the Gandhis (in terms of social captivation and
tragedy) and yet in reality the latter family has certainly had more of an
impact on the history of their nation. Rahul's father Rajiv Gandhi was
assassinated in 1991 by members of the Tamil Tigers. His brother Sanjay died in
a plane crash in 1980 but had also been the subject of several assassination
attempts. Though never prime minister he had exercised tremendous control of
domestic policy during the 1970's emergency period.
Their mother, the present day Rahul's grandmother was Indira
Gandhi slain by her vengeful Sikh bodyguards in 1984. And of course Indira's
father was none other than Jawaharlal Nehru, India's first prime minister after
independence from Britain.
This party which has heavily dominated Indian politics over
the past seventy years has taken some serious blows in recent years and has
been shaken by the ever ascendant Bharatiya Janata Party or BJP, now headed by
Narendra Modi.
The elections next year are pivotal in determining what
direction India will go and in many ways they are a referendum on Modi and the
BJP. If he's defeated or weakened, the Congress Party will potentially once more
begin a return to power. But a large-scale Modi victory will put the Congress
Party into an unfamiliar trough and many will fear for its future.
Modi's 2014 victory was stunning by all accounts but four
years later the economy is not performing as promised, lower castes and
religious minorities have turned against the BJP's Hindu Nationalism, farmers
are still dying and there have been fairly disastrous policies in terms of
currency reform. Everyone is waiting to see what will happen with the new
health-care rollout. Certain sectors of the Indian economy have done very well
and in terms of finance and the markets, India is booming. Thus Modi is popular
abroad and among some at home but there are growing numbers of discontents.
Additionally the BJP affiliated paramilitaries, the RSS are a cause of growing
angst and even anger.
The Congress Party is doing what it can in calling attention
not only to BJP policies but the corruption within Modi's government. And
corrupt it is. Modi is a lover of what some call Crony Capitalism. Some view
this is a deviation from true capitalism, others as simply a natural and even
necessary result of the system. Either way, cronyism and corruption are the
order of the day and it is a system in which Modi is able to flourish.
And yet bought friends are fair-weather friends and Modi
knows this. And thus, Modi is looking for friends wherever he can find them and
he just made some in France.
See also:
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.