The timing of Trump's Syria withdrawal is interesting in
light of the impeachment probe. Again I wonder if he truly blundered into this
or if he isn't being set up? One can hardly pity him but the policy is even turning
many Republicans against him.
Of course others stand by him and in an utterly hypocritical
fashion they defend his withdrawal. And yet had Obama done the same they would
have been after his head. The rhetoric would literally know no limits. They
would be accusing him of not only high crimes and misdemeanors, but treachery
and rank treason.
I've listened to some analysts suggest that the Ankara-Moscow
deal is actually a boon (of sorts) for the Kurds as it limits direct Turkish
influence as well as their uninhibited presence. The Russians are playing the
role of buffer. Turkey is getting its security and the Kurds (while having lost
some ground and the dream of Rojava) will actually get relief. And of course
the Assad regime will be able to re-establish authority and control in the
areas falling under Russian military control, and yet avoid confrontations with
Turkish troops.
This is viewed as tragic in US circles and yet why is it so?
Having no sympathy with the regime change aspirations of the Neo-Con agenda
(which reigns in both parties), the idea that the Damascus government would
re-assert control over its own territory is hardly something to get upset
about.
But what about ISIS? There's been a near hysteria about the
escaped prisoners. New York senator Chuck Schumer has droned on about how
Trump's made the 'worst decision in decades' by pulling out of Syria and has
put the US in danger.
On the contrary the worst decision made in recent decades was
Bush's 2003 decision to invade Iraq and topple its government, a decision
Schumer supported. Why should we trust his judgment now? The Bush invasion was
bad from whatever perspective one holds. Those who warned that the Middle East
would be set on fire have been vindicated. Even those who favour US imperialism
have had to question the wisdom in Bush's moves in the aftermath of 9/11. It is
only the true Machiavellians and profiteers who revel in the chaos and prospect
of endless war.
Time will tell if ISIS is able to re-constitute itself but if
the Assad government can assert control in the north and the threat of the
Turks is removed from the Kurds... then they can maintain control in their
region. They don't want to see ISIS re-appear either. US troops are set to be
placed in Anbar (Western Iraq) and the Kurds control Nineveh, where Sinjar is
located, one of the more notable Yazidi-Kurd enclaves. Those people will fight
to the death before they let ISIS come back.
The media is trying to spin this as a huge victory for
Russia. This also plays into the Russiagate narrative. For the first time it
seems they have something that will allow the accusation to stick.... Trump's
actions played into Putin's hand.
While Putin's regional influence is certainly on the rise,
the actually victory belongs to Assad and hopefully to the people of Syria.
Stability and security is what they want. Like it or not Assad is the ruler
that most Syrians support. He represents the legitimate government. Whether the
Russians and Iranians are there or not is the prerogative of his regime. The
American mandarins and praetorians might ask themselves why has Putin been
successful? Is it because of schemes and dark machinations or is it actually
due to something quite simple? Perhaps at this point in time he's viewed as an
honest broker while the Americans are not. On the contrary the Americans are
known for their treachery and their lies. And I'm not referring to the recent
episode with regard to the Syrian Kurds. There's a larger history that few
Americans know and in fact it's one declared largely 'out of bounds' by the
official institutions of the Establishment. It's a pill not just too hard to
swallow, it's one that can't even be acknowledged or discussed. And the pill is
this... America is a big lie. They preach liberal values, democracy, law and
accountability, the integrity of treaties, trade and diplomacy but none of it
is actually rooted in American character, integrity, ideals or even precedent.
It's rooted in raw power and the American Empire has proven to be fickle and
duplicitous on more than one occasion. The Americans are viewed as scheming
hypocrites who use their rhetoric when it suits them and the next minute will
back bloodthirsty killers. Putin as painful as it is for myth-loving Americans
to hear, is viewed as a straight shooter.
Ironically the situation was much the same during the Cold
War. There was a real cost in turning to the USSR but many nations viewed the
Soviets as genuine and often honest brokers. However if you dealt with them the
US would try and overthrow you. But if you tried to stay non-aligned and avoid
both camps... the Soviets would largely leave you alone but the Americans
viewed such neutrality as verboten
and would likewise try to overthrow you or assassinate your leaders. The
Americans would happily make you an offer but it was one you weren't allowed to
refuse.
The United States started this present mess in the 1990's
with the Gulf War but especially with the near genocidal containment policies,
sanctions and no-fly-zones in its aftermath. Bush's 2003 invasion ripped apart
the delicate and yet artificial fabric of the Middle Eastern order. The Obama
administration did all it could to facilitate and augment the Syrian uprising
and Obama and Hillary Clinton bear great responsibility for the catastrophe, multi-front
war and refugee crisis that followed. The failure of the Syrian project is on
the one hand a continuation of America's failed efforts since 2003. In another
sense (when isolated) it represents the biggest failure since the collapse of
the Shah in 1979. It's a pretty big blow to American prestige and geo-strategic
planning.
Trump's withdrawal is a loss of face for the American Empire
but it retains a hope for peace in Syria. Establishment Washington will do all
it can to wreck this and I think there are elements within the American Deep
State that will stoop pretty low. Whether that means arming ISIS fighters,
impeaching Trump or even destabilising neighbouring Iraq, there are players
determined to keep the US entrenched in the region and to keep the larger long
term programme on track.
For my part I hope the joint Russo-Turkish patrols and
management of the buffer zone results in peace.... security for Ankara,
breathing room for Damascus, time and space for the Kurds and a general
pacification of the country. There's still another round to be played in the
northwest of Syria as an enclave of Sunni and Salafi rebels remains viable.
Assad is villainised for wanting to re-secure it and defeat the factions allied
with al Qaeda. Of course if he were an ally such moves would be perfectly understandable
and loudly supported.
War is murder and all sides are dripping in blood. But
Assad's government didn't start it and they remain the legitimate power within
the country. International law is cited in order to condemn his war crimes...
whether real, simulated or blamed on him by the guilty parties... and yet
there's a basic concept in the law that's ignored. Assad was and remains the
legitimate (even elected) Syrian government. The Iranians and Russians are
there at the request of his government. I don't think the Americans can say the
same when it comes to Syria and certainly not when it comes to a place like
Okinawa. The Tokyo government may permit their presence and yet in the cases of
Tokyo, Berlin, Rome... they have little choice. The Americans have had a troop
presence in these countries since 1945 and they don't intend to leave
regardless of whether or not the governments want them there. Usually the
American course has been to make sure the governments in control 'want' them
there. It's rather convenient that way.
Russia's standing in the Middle East is limited. Putin's
victory consists of the fact that he was able to play a part in stopping
American aggression. Trump's move is being spun as a gift to Putin. Trump's 'gift'
is hopefully one of peace to Syria. It's not because of any virtue or wisdom on
his part. Maybe it's the instinct born of the cutthroat world of New York real
estate and politics. Looking at the situation his gut response is... What's the
point? Why are we here? Ideals and esoteric strategies aren't going to appeal
to him and he can't think long term or 'big picture'. What he sees is a
situation that has the potential to blow up... something some in Washington
would like to see happen.
Trump is not a peacemaker. He's a liar and a warmonger but in
this case self-interest and self-preservation are telling him....Syria is a
waste of time. He has other places he'd rather focus on and yet he did not bank
on the outrage he has generated. He should have known from the last time he
suggested a pull out. Ever stubborn and unwilling to listen he put his foot
down and yet he continues to dance and back-track even while pretending not to.
Trump's way out of his political mess may prove disastrous
for all... end one war but start a bigger one. Once again the war drums are
beating for Iran. The move wouldn't reconcile all his opponents but in 'wagging
the dog' he would certainly regain some of his allies.
But regardless of what happens, the media will continue to
put their spin on it and always without exception.... everything points to
Putin.
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