The Failed Coup in Jordan

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/former-mossad-agent-allegedly-involved-in-jordan-coup-report-664094

Israel and Jordan have had unofficial relations since the 1970's and formal relations dating back to the 1990's. Jordan's King Abdullah is pro-West, a friend to both Israel and Washington.

And yet there are persistent accusations that the Mossad was behind the recent coup attempt or at the very least the Israeli intelligence organisation is backing Abdullah's half-brother (and son of Queen Noor) Hamzeh.

People can argue over whether Shaposhnik was a Mossad agent. I'm more interested in the 'why' – as intuition would lead one to say 'no', Israel wants to see Abdullah remain in place.

There are a couple of things to consider. One, Abdullah has not had a very good relationship with Netanyahu and the Likud party, nor were things very cordial with regard to Likud's supreme ally in Donald Trump. And Trump's recent diplomatic agreements have by some estimations rendered Jordan's role to be of less importance and thus dissent and non-compliance are less likely to be tolerated – all the more if a Washington-friendly rival stands ready to step-in.

Second, one must revisit an old question that dates back to Black September on the PLO's presence in Jordan during the 1970's. There were talks of allowing Jordan to annex the West Bank (or part of it) – a move that would effectively end any possibility of the so-called Two-State Solution. While Likud is generally opposed to the Two-State option, the idea of abandoning the West Bank has always been abhorrent to them. They want to annex it and under Netanyahu they have done so with strategic determination – and have effectively killed the two-state option.

That said, there are still those within the Israeli Right (which is not limited to Likud) that see the Jordanian-West Bank plan as a good option. One commentator suggested the Biden ascendancy gave the situation some urgency. It's possible and should be considered.

There are also regional politics at work and more than one observer has brought up the UAE in the equation which continues to play a large (if outsized) role in the region's politics. Allied with Saudi Arabia, the nation also seems to pursue its own course at times and at other moments seems to act as a US proxy. It's complicated and difficult but there's definitely more to the story than simple dynastic rivalries.

Will the attempted coup, or the reports of Mossad involvement ultimately harm Amman's relationship with Tel-Aviv? There are those who would like to see that happen – which is also worthy of consideration.