After several vicious rounds of advance and retreat, it would
seem the Tigray War may be stabilising. At present there is a cease fire and we
can hope that it holds. Everyone is tired of fighting and both sides have
suffered considerably – not to mention the vast number of civilians who have
been brutalised.
While there's a ceasefire, the situation is by no means
resolved. The Tigray region is basically (at this point) autonomous and they've
proven that they can hold their own against the Abiy government in Addis Ababa
– which is now a government in crisis.
The US has not officially taken sides but it's clear they
support the Tigray movement and have been less than thrilled with Abiy Ahmed
since he took office in 2018. Abiy, who indicated that he would seek closer
ties with Beijing, is now openly receiving support from the Chinese government
– a point that has led to his condemnation by Washington and its allies.
The now partially filled Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has
now started generating electricity and this remains controversial with the
governments of Sudan and Egypt. Sudan itself is in turmoil. Its government has
been overthrown, and society is in a state of upheaval. Refugees from the
Tigray War are only going to amplify Sudanese tensions and instability. Additionally
some of the troubles are spilling over into Somalia. And Eritrea is also
involved in the fight, a point which not just infuriates the Tigray who as the
rulers of Ethiopia fought a long war against them, but is also certain to anger
some in the West.
And in case you missed it, it's not just the Tigray people
fighting the central government. Sections of Oromo fighters and Afar people
have joined in which also intensifies the risk of war spreading to neighbouring
Kenya and Djibouti.
All these things considered, the Tigray War was (or is) on
the cusp of becoming the wider regional war that everyone feared. Given that US
and Chinese interests are at odds and that Iran and Turkey are also providing
arms to Addis Ababa, the conflict could intensify if some powerful players
decide to provide serious support to the Tigray. Washington has not yet
committed itself at that level and given that Washington's attention is
presently directed elsewhere – they may not. But if the past provides a
precedent, Washington may look to an ally to step in and provide the support –
Egypt is a logical choice but there are other options as well.
The fighting may have ceased for the present but nothing has
been resolved and leaving things as they stand will only allow the problems to fester
and generate pressure – resulting in yet another rupture at some future date.
If the US decides to engage Russia in Eastern Europe, it's likely that both
Moscow and China will move where they can and there will be 'flare ups' at the
various global tension points. Ethiopia is ground zero. Beijing would love to
see the Tigray defeated, Abiy strengthened, and a regional peace negotiated by
Chinese diplomats sans the US State Department.
The public isn't watching Ethiopia right now. In fact the
public pays almost no attention to Africa at all. But it's worth watching
because the situation is on the verge of a serious escalation. Let's hope and
pray that the cooler heads prevail and some form of compromise is reached.
See also:
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2020/12/the-context-for-tigray-revolt.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2020/07/trouble-on-nile.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2021/12/us-support-for-tplf.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2021/10/the-october-2021-coup-in-sudan.html
https://proto-protestantism.blogspot.com/2018/08/the-horn-of-africa-geopolitics-and.html
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