Coveting Serbia's Lithium

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3274031/thousands-protest-lithium-mining-serbia-officials-call-it-coup-plot?module=top_story&pgtype=subsection

This author and many others have been writing for years about the tug-of-war in Serbia. The Atlanticist plan in the 1990's was to break up Serb-dominated Yugoslavia and bring all the pieces into the EU and NATO orbit. This largely succeeded except with Serbia itself which remains outside the bloc and friendly to its historical ally in Moscow.

In the 2020's the situation has grown more complicated as China must also be factored into the equation.

The world is after lithium - it's the gold rush for our age and there are wars being fought in Africa for it and other resources such as cobalt. The government of Bolivia (a nation with massive lithium reserves) was toppled in 2019 and the country remains contentious with some of the coup plotters now in prison. Another coup attempt just took place recently in June 2024.

It has now been revealed that Serbia has potentially significant Lithium reserves - enough to meet the needs of the EU. As such, the ante has just been upped as they say. Serbia has become that much more important in the great geopolitical chess game.

Vucic the current prime minister is on board with the Lithium mining deal (with the Anglo-Australian multinational Rio Tinto) and now there are domestic protests calling for his removal. Brussels and Washington want to see the mining take place - but they would also like to see Vucic gone. Who might replace him? It could be a hardliner which is not something Western leaders want to see.

Or, it could be the opportunity they've been waiting for. After all, Russia is not in a position to help Serbia should a NATO-involved conflict erupt. Given the tensions in neighbouring Bosnia and in particular the Serbian Republika Srpska enclave - the possibilities for violence, war, and 'humanitarian' intervention are real and don't require a great deal of imagination to contemplate.

Russia for its part wants to see the protests - which would block Western investment and while Vucic is preferable to a more overtly pro-EU candidate, Moscow would probably be happy with someone else. It's hard to say as Vucic seems to shift with the winds. He's usually painted as pro-Russian but his actual record is more complicated.

Another way this could develop is that the West could come alongside Vucic and support him in the face of opposition - with promises that he will pull back from both Moscow and Beijing. That scenario is however something of a long-shot and carries considerable risk and as he could always change his mind a year or two from now.

The level of Western media coverage regarding this story indicates that it's important and it is likely to receive more attention in the days to come. The timing is critical as many strategists realize there's no better time to deal with the 'Serbian problem' than the present.