https://apnews.com/article/viktor-orban-hungary-romania-eu-3ea649669de75d13b0ba3585c0e83239
The lead article alludes to the Habsburg Empire but then proves less than accurate in some of its historical statements. Orban does indeed have Habsburg allies but the article isn't really about the Habsburgs. The article touches on his grand vision, the supposed reconstitution of the Habsburg realm, but the story is really in the numbers. These reveal the rightward shift that's taking place in Europe and (I think) sheds light on Orban's more immediate machinations. It's clear he's thinking a couple of steps ahead, preparing for the next European Parliamentary election in 2029.
Orban formed the oxymoronic-named Patriots for Europe (PfE) in July 2024 and overnight it became the 3rd biggest bloc in the EU Parliament. If there is a historical parallel to Hungary as a power in Europe or the Habsburg domain, it's the 1867 Ausgleich, the formation of the Dual Monarchy of Austria-Hungary in which the Magyar state became (in many respects) the dominant force. Today, Hungary is leading the way in creating a new political bloc and within short order of its creation, the National Rally of France and Italy's Lega party joined the PfE.
But it wasn't all victory for Orban as a few big name groups are missing - Meloni's FdI, Poland's PiS, and the AfD in Germany. The latter joined the tiny and also newly formed Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN) party while the FdI and PiS are in the ECR - the European Conservatives and Reformists, which is now the 4th largest bloc.
And while Slovakia's Fico is something of a fan of Viktor Orban, there are still significant tensions between the nations - for many centuries Slovakia was a region known as Upper Hungary and Bratislava was Pozsony/Pressburg, the Hungarian capital for nearly three centuries. The Slovaks were oppressed and this explains why they were quick to join up with the Czechs after WWI in order to create a nation big enough to stand its ground.
With the end of the Cold War, Czechoslovakia had served its purpose and as 1993 dawned, the two nations (which were actually fairly diverse) went their separate ways. The Slovaks remain leery of Hungary as there is a strong irredentist spirit in the nation - great bitterness over the loss of the historic kingdom and lands. It must always be remembered that with Trianon Treaty of 1920, Hungary lost over 70% of its territory to Slovakia, Ukraine, Romania, Serbia, Croatia, and Austria. And there remains significant numbers of Hungarians in these historic lands - and Orban advocates for them and uses them for his political goals.
And here are the stunning numbers... if Orban's PfE and the ECR joined forces, they would be the 2nd biggest bloc in the EU Parliament. If the new ESN joined as well - they would be tied for 1st with the European People's Party (EPP). This is the story of the recent election. The Right isn't fully unified but collectively they are on the cusp of taking power. They are poised to dominate the European Union.
If they can unify they stand ready to become the dominant power in 2029. The great irony is that many of these parties are Eurosceptic. What does this mean? It could mean the end of the EU as we know it.
Orban is preparing for that moment. And you can be sure the EU Establishment is as well. In early 2024 the slow gears of the bureaucracy began to turn with a resolution calling on the EU Council to strip Budapest of its voting rights and declaring it in violation of the 2007 EU Treaty. I expect them to start moving a little more aggressively as there's an existential crisis knocking at their door.
Orban is accused of Electoral Autocracy - in other words an authoritarian state suppressing media and democracy and attempting manipulate elections. Historically these are moves that soften the ground for dictatorship. Indeed some would consider Hungary to be a kind of soft-dictatorship already.
Orban himself proclaimed his goal of turning Hungary into an 'illiberal democracy' in a 2014 speech. On one level this is a contradiction but what he's trying to do is force a social consensus and then limit democracy within that framework - a project near and dear to the heart of the American (and specifically the Christian) Right.
Orban wants a soft and moderated version or one could even say a modified reconstitution of Christendom. He seeks a triangulation between Christian Democracy (liberalism) and the now defunct Throne and Altar (old conservatism) polity that antedates the French and American Revolutions. This is why he resonates with the Habsburgs and they too are keen on him - at least the conservative elements among them. They have a role to play in the polity he hopes to create.
One might say it's Europe's version of Christian nationalism. My guess would be something on the order of a constitutional monarchy - at least in terms of the outward trappings. It should be considered that Orban has praised Miklos Horthy, the 'regent' who ruled Hungary from 1920-1944.
Officially Horthy's basis for power was as 'regent' for the absent Habsburgs - though when Karl attempted to return and take the throne, Horthy denied him. Ruling as dictator wanting to preserve or reconstitute the old order, Horthy allied with Hitler during the war - hoping to re-claim lost Hungarian lands but as the war ended and it was clear the Axis powers were going to lose, Hungary switched sides. In response Hitler sent in the SS, overthrew Horthy and installed the native Arrow Cross Party which went on a murderous rampage until ousted by the invading Russians. By some estimations Horthy is considered a fascist. At the very least he was an ally. Needless to say Orban's backhanded praise of him generated controversy. To others he simply showed his cards.
Some elements within Orban's larger play book are touched on in the second article.
There are still considerable numbers of Hungarians in Transylvania - the region was part of the Hungarian kingdom for centuries and only became part of Romania after World War I.
And so Orban likes to agitate and stir up the Hungarians in the neighbouring states - this is also why he takes issue with Kyiv and its ultra-nationalist programme. Historically it's ironic because the language requirements being forced on Hungarians in Ukraine is in keeping with how the Hungarians treated their minorities - particularly in the wake of the Ausgleich-Dual Monarchy arrangement with Austria in 1867.
Laszlo Tokes will be remembered by some as the Reformed pastor in Timișoara who helped spark the December 1989 protests that resulted in the overthrow of Ceaușescu. Tokes (like Orban in Hungary) was hailed at the time as a champion of liberal democracy and was an inspiration to the West.
Tokes was later revealed to be a less than moral man, certainly unworthy of pastoral office. Additionally he proved no liberal but instead took a nationalist turn and eventually affiliated with Orban's Fidesz Party - and has also held office in Hungary itself.
And so it wasn't surprising to see Orban and Tokes seated together as they have political goals in common. It's in Orban's interest to see Ukraine remain a neutral state, a buffer between the EU/NATO/Atlantic bloc and Russia. He doesn't want to see Ukraine go the ultra-nationalist route or become a completely liberal state either. His stance on this question is less about consistent ideals and more about realpolitik. Orban may not be opposed to war in Europe but he does not want to see Russia at war with Europe.
He supports Trump because he's breaking the system and his return to office will likely mean the dismantling of Atlanticism. Thinking just a couple of years ahead, with the European Right ascendant and NATO in shambles - Orban's vision for Europe seems possible.
The first step will be to end the EU or at least completely reorder it - and bring about a return to nations and nationhood. The union might stay in existence for purposes of trade or collective defense but Orban wants to smash the bureaucracy and the power centre in Brussels. If the Schengen Treaty survives it will be for commerce, not merely open borders that can be used by immigrants and migrant workers.
Europe would return to a genuine multi-polar order - and yet one wonders if Orban realizes that will also mean a rekindling of historical interests and the potential for a dangerous network of alliances. As far as the historical questions - they are very much on the mind of Orban but surely he must realize that other nations have similar aspirations and in many cases they come into conflict with the designs of Budapest.
Orban views the threat in terms of Asiatics, immigration, and economic takeover by other powers - be they Brussels, Washington, or Beijing.
As a right-wing quasi-fascist (who again praised Miklos Horthy), he likes Trump's style but doesn't want a subordinate relationship with the United States. I think it safe to say he would prefer one that is transactional and based on common interests as opposed to something promoted and undergirded by Atlanticist ideology - which necessarily subordinates Hungary and all the nations of Europe.
The exception to this might be a collective Western Nationalism vis-à-vis the rest of the world - a kind of neo-Christendom. These would ne nations in alliance, sharing a common interest not something centralised and formal like the EU or even NATO in which the member nations end up being subordinated and turned into satrapies.
The flag-waving American Right fails to grasp that Orban is not a friend to US interests and in subtle ways seeks to undermine its power. At one time the US viewed Budapest as an ally (and part of the V4/Visegrad 4) able to rein in the EU. But right now Washington wants a strong EU and NATO and Orban's interests are in conflict with the US Establishment - hence his constant vilification in the Anglo-American media. The American Right sees him as an ally in the culture wars and yet it's also clear that many of them champion American power but lack a basic understanding of how that power is structured and wielded. If Trump wins, Atlanticism is wrecked, and the Right takes over the EU - these same Americans are likely to be disappointed and eventually angry.
See also:
https://proto-protestantism.blogspot.com/2020/04/hungary-orban-and-habsburgs-together.html
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