More Signals from Armenia

https://eurasianet.org/armenia-sending-signals-that-it-wants-to-back-out-of-a-nuclear-energy-deal-with-russia

https://theworld.org/stories/2024/09/06/the-rise-of-an-armenian-church-opposition-leader

Yerevan continues to signal its shift to the West. There's little doubt that Moscow is alarmed as now Armenia seeks to re-orient its nuclear energy programme to the West and to cut out the Russians.

From the Americans engaged in military exercises with Armenia, to the EU offering visa-free travel, the West is doing all it can to woo Yerevan into its orbit.

You can be sure the Russians are working aggressively to counter this but some of the old tried and true avenues are closed to them. The Armenian nationalists who would normally tend to be sceptical of the West are angry with Moscow for failing to come to their aid during their recent war with Azerbaijan. They view it not just as a legal failure as Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) - but they took it personally, as Russia is a historical ally going back to Tsarist times.

And in light of this, Armenia announced earlier this year that it is now planning to leave the CSTO on the basis of Russia's failure to uphold Article 4's promise of mutual aid. The CSTO was created in the early 1990's as a kind of Warsaw Pact 2.0 but focused on ex-Soviet republics. Since then it has changed and in recent years Iran has considered joining and Serbia observes. Were Belgrade to join it would probably spawn a war in the Balkans as NATO wouldn't have it.

But more than all this, the Armenians are bitter because they are fellow Oriental Orthodox nations sharing in a historical struggle against the Turk. Moscow failed them and they're not in a very forgiving mood.

Archbishop Bagrat Galastanyan is agitating for war with Azerbaijan, which at this point is tantamount to national suicide. And as Baku (which left the CSTO in 1999) is a staunch American and Israeli ally, Washington would not want to see another war. But it may have the means to negotiate a peace - something Russia does not have at present.

The West is moving on Armenia because Russia is tied down in Ukraine and the relationship with Ankara is at an all time low - a relationship that in the past would have been strained if Washington reached out to the Armenians. At this point things couldn't get much worse with Ankara which is poised to join the BRICS and likely the SCO - moves Washington considers unacceptable and worthy of an enemy. The fact that the US has cozied up to Armenia has also exacerbated this tension as the Turks respond with about the same level of venom as the Chinese do over Taiwan.

It's now or never it would seem and the hope is to secure the whole of Transcaucasia - Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, and to begin bringing these nations solidly into the Western orbit. But it's difficult as there is no easy path for EU membership and such a move would be certainly be resisted in Europe itself. And a push to bring these nations into NATO would certainly lead to a regional war - one that would involve Russia and Iran.

In the meantime the goal is to establish strong diplomatic, military, and economic ties to make sure Moscow is cut out.

The Russians retain a small military base in Armenia which has been there since World War II. In the post-Soviet era the presence of Russian troops has been to try and keep the peace in the region - especially between Armenia and Azerbaijan who have battled over Nagorno-Karabakh or Artsakh as the Armenian nationalists call it. There have also been tensions and conflicts with Georgia as borders and boundaries remain unresolved. The main purpose (historically) was to protect Armenia from a Turkish invasion from the West. The troops are a deterrent and trip-wire. But such an invasion is unlikely. Armenia's trouble and likely threat is from the east - from Azerbaijan which is backed by Türkiye. An alliance with the Americans has the potential to pacify that situation or blow it all up.

The Armenians are already signalling they want the Russian troops out and Radio Free Europe, a mouthpiece for the United States has been running pieces connected to this issue - a signal that the West has the Gyumri base in its sights. The Russians also have a peacekeeping role in connection to the Karabakh frontier but this issue (despite the protestations of Armenian nationalists) seems to be at an effective end. Without a major clash between the nations, the Armenians have no hope of re-taking that territory.

For Armenia, the Russian base agreement will be difficult to navigate. If they ask them to leave and the Russians refuse - what then? More likely they will slowly but surely work toward encouraging the Russians to leave of their own freewill. Otherwise according to the deal they can stay until the 2040's.

In the meantime one wonders if the Armenians understand that they run the risk of jeopardizing their own security by trying to play this game - but others will say they have no choice. After the war with Azerbaijan they found out that their security was in fact an illusion.