(Both outlets (DW and Euractiv) can safely be described as
pro-EU)
Free courts are the issue that has Poland in a state of
turmoil. Free in the sense of free from political influence and the potential
control of the Law and Justice Party (PiS)? Or free in the sense of Polish
jurisdiction, precedent and custom being respected and not subjected to the
international judicial dictates of the European Union?
That's the debate that is causing all the controversy. It all
depends on how it is framed. But legally, Poland is a member of the EU and thus
Brussels can make the case that Warsaw (under the PiS) is in violation of the
law.
This issue has been stirring for some time and yet the recent
proposed disciplinary legislation has brought the controversy to a tipping
point. Now there's open talk of a Polexit, a Polish departure from the European
Union, and yet the way some are proposing it... it's really akin to an
expulsion.
Poland, a leading power within the dissident V4 bloc is not
quite in agreement with its Czech, Slovak and Hungarian fellows on issues such
as the threat of Russia. Poland is fully on board with NATO when it comes to
that issue. All four members have strained relations with the EU and most would
have said that up to this point Viktor Orban's Fidesz-ruled Hungary embodied
the greatest antagonism and hostility to Brussels within the whole European
Union... perhaps the UK being excepted of course, but even that claim could be
questioned.
Nevertheless it is Poland that faces the real crisis wherein
the EU either has to assert its power and slap down the PiS or face the
undermining and erosion of its authority. And yet just how can the PiS be
disciplined? This is unclear. At one time the threat of an ejection from the EU
would have been viewed as an extreme punishment but in today's political
climate that's not necessarily the case. Not a few of the EU's Right wing
governments would happily lead their countries out of EU membership, but after
watching Brexit, everyone is hesitant. The UK experience has provided a
textbook example of how not to do it.
A Polexit would certainly throw the EU into an existential
crisis. Already there are other 'exit' movements beginning to rumble in the
background. It is amazing. As I've written before I was in Europe in the
mid-1990's just as the Schengen Agreement was beginning to become operable. It
was hit or miss as you crossed the borders. Customs enforcement was relaxed,
selective but clearly beginning to fade. There was a real sense of excitement
as everyone considered the possibilities. The Euro rollout a few years later
only amplified the optimism. Less than twenty years later the project is still
standing and does not face an immediate threat of collapse... however, the
future of the EU is under something of a cloud, hardly a sure thing. There are
ominous signs and the struggles with the UK, Poland, Hungary and Italy are only
the beginning.
It's going to get worse and the question will be... did the
EU have enough time to really establish itself, to sink deep roots in order to
weather the storms? The passing of the generation that remembered pre-EU days
might have helped the cause but as it stands there are many who can clearly
remember 'better days' before their countries signed on with Brussels.
Additionally, although it is a different topic in some ways,
it is nevertheless related... there are those that can remember the ugliness of
NATO policy in the 1980's, a time when Europe felt the fear and dread of a
pending war and not a few blamed Reagan for the tensions. Some will not want to
revisit that chapter and do not view the contemporary threats as even remotely
justified. Security is a different question but it's not unrelated to the
larger question of European unity and the question of a course being steered
out of Brussels.... whether EU or NATO.
See also:
It's interesting how the Post quotes different figures than
Euractiv. The Post represents the Atlantic Establishment which has at times
been ambivalent (at best) with regard to the EU. But right now it's more
complicated. I would say that most of them don't want to see a Polexit and yet
at the same time the PiS has proven to be a real friend to Washington and its
NATO policies vis-à-vis Moscow. Washington (especially under Trump) has no
problem with treating the PiS leadership in a shabby manner but at the same
time moves will be made to try and bring some calm to the situation.
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