Belarus on the Front Line

https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/belarus-crowds-rally-against-closer-russia-ties-wave-eu-flags/

Were these marches funded? Probably not as they were too small to have a real impact, but it's a well known tactic, one certainly at work in Hong Kong and undoubtedly in Iran... or soon will be once again.

Lukashenko's talk of a union with Moscow indicates a wish to avoid frontline status. He knows the protests are going to increase and NATO wants to make trouble for him. The West pushes the story of his relationship to Putin as a means of scaremongering.

For Belarus, the status quo is not sustainable. In the era of Trump, NATO has been shaken and the organisation is likely to do something semi-desperate in order to re-establish itself. How this pans out is anyone's guess but right now for NATO it's a 1991 moment.... the military alliance needs to establish its justification. A Belarus intervention, or even terrible instability in Belarus, let alone a Russian intervention would quickly bring the European order in line. There are those who would play architect and attempt to manipulate and create such scenarios. For some, their commitment to NATO and all that it stands for and the massive financial apparatus behind it are well worth it.

Such a crisis would force Macron to recommit to NATO and undoubtedly many would hope that it would (at the very least) tie the hands of Trump.

Macron's seeming sabotage, his 'brain dead' comments regarding NATO and his promotion of the Europe alone- Aachen ethos shook up the already shaken alliance. Merkel was obviously not happy with him, indicating that while Germany is on board with Aachen and an independent European army, there are still strong elements within the European Establishment that are not ready to just dispense with Atlanticism... at least not in a haphazard or rushed manner. And not all are willing to take Europe into a U-turn and embrace diplomatic normality with Russia, a path Macron seems to entertain if not embrace. They view such moves as reckless.

Though Macron wants to flex his European muscles, the ongoing and crippling domestic strikes have put his government under stress and continue to weaken his standing.

The December 2019 London NATO summit revealed discord, disharmony and a lack of direction. The leaders of Europe will watch the 2020 US presidential election with a degree of trepidation and you can also be sure they will (through whatever channels are available to them) pour money into the US electoral process. For them it's not merely a matter of influence but a question of their future.

Belarus is probably least liberal state in Europe and with a pro-Moscow government and yet even Lukashenko's pro-Moscow stance is held with no small degree of ambivalence.... but he's trapped. He's doing all he can to reach out, the recent pipeline talks with Kazakhstan are not only an instance of looking for friends but it quietly brings Minsk in line with the EU's outreach to Central Asia. His position is unenviable but given his decades of authoritarian rule, few will lament his fall and yet an unstable Belarus is dangerous given the current geopolitical situation.

For that reason there are those who having no love for Lukashenko would nevertheless prefer the status quo. While Christian groups often face repression and some difficulty in Belarus, a society torn apart may prove worse. Many will rejoice at the fall of Lukashenko but I would only say this... be careful what you wish for.