25 January 2020

Trump and the Asian Pivot


The US Navy has been doing something unusual, carrier swapping. Usually when one enters the Navy you more or less spend your career either plugged into the Atlantic or Pacific fleets. But due to personnel problems, the need to re-fuel existing craft (that would be nuclear refueling) and in order to keep the active or cutting edge on the Pacific side, the Navy has been in the process of swapping ships and crews between locations like San Diego and Norfolk.


What's telling is that there is an obvious desire to keep the active and perhaps 'readiest' carrier groups stationed on the Pacific side.
While the previously Norfolk-based USS Lincoln did an extended cruise with a focus toward the Persian Gulf and the crisis with Iran, its new home port of San Diego points to the fact that despite Trump's constant reversing of Obama era policies, his administration continues to posture against China. His strategy is different, even chaotic but it's rooted in an expression of US might and the projection of its power into the Western Pacific.
Whether through the trade war policies or the up-tick in US Navy operations, the Trump administration is trying to break China and yet few think the plan is working. The US State Department continues to express frustration with its allies for not providing more support. Both the Obama and Trump administrations have expressed disappointment with Australia for failing to get fully on board and join in with US naval 'Freedom of Navigation' operations which are a US policy meant to provoke Beijing in the South China Sea.
From the standpoint of Canberra, such a project is tantamount to economic suicide and yet all too often the US has called on its allies to fall on their swords for the greater cause. That said the election of Scott Morrison in 2018 was a boon for the Trump administration. The previous Turnbull government had been a disappointment and had been upbraided more than once by the Obama administration as represented by Joe Biden. Morrison on the other hand is an Evangelical and eager to find a path forward and retain the close relationship with Washington, even while keeping his China-dependent economy on solid footing. It will be interesting to see the fallout from the wildfire catastrophe and whether or not it brings down his government. In the meantime the US continues to push for further involvement on the part of Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea.
Many view Trump's policies as having weakened the Pivot strategy. He pulled the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and has downgraded US readiness and had canceled war-games on the Korean peninsula. While his allies are quick to praise his actions with regard to North Korea, many will point out that nothing has been resolved and a crisis could erupt once more at any time. The victories for Kim Jong-un have been significant but thus far Trump can't claim any accomplishment.
The jury is still out on Trump's trade war policies. Some laud them and would point to the latest figures regarding China's economy. Some view the pending trade deal as a boon for the US agricultural sector. But there's also been obfuscation. The media has paid very little attention to the massive subsidy programme which the administration put in place for US agriculture and did so by circumventing congress. Significant subsidies have been passed on to American farmers, an interesting ploy that's certain to win votes in the fall. Of course had Obama initiated such a package, let alone if he done it by executive action it no doubt would have been decried as tyrannical socialism.
The apologists for capitalism are quick to dispense with their principles when it serves the interests of their political party. I have to say the Ron Paul-minded and affiliated groups are probably the only ones that have any integrity on this point. They would let the farms fail but then of course they wouldn't have supported the tariffs in the first place.
Trump's foreign policy backers were banking on the fact that he would keep up the pressure on China and try to extract the US from conflict within the Middle East and with Russia. It would seem thus far he hasn't had a lot of success on any front.
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