The Downed 737 in Tehran

The downing of a Ukrainian 737 over Tehran was a tragedy with well over one hundred lives lost. It took place amid the confusion and angst surrounding the assassination of Iranian general Suleimani and in particular the Iranian missile strike in which US bases in Iraq were hit as a form of retaliation.

The initial reporting was confusing. At first it seemed like the 737 was shot down at the same time the missiles were launched into Iraq but then to add to the confusion the reports referenced a surface-to-air missile or SAM. This made little sense as the missiles launched into Iraq were certainly surface-to-surface missiles or SSM's. The one is targeted, the other often hones in on a heat source such as an exhaust.

Finally the reports made clear that the airliner was shot down a few hours after the missile strike. So what happened? It was still hard to tell and it would seem there are lies being advanced all sides. I immediately grew suspicious when I started hearing talk of 'Russian missiles'. I started to wonder if this wasn't going to be another MH-17. The Malaysian 777 was shot down over Ukraine in 2014 and though the facts are still less than clear, Western media has done all it can to point to Russia as the culprit.

The Iranian government isn't trustworthy but neither is the Pentagon or the mainstream media which does its bidding. Finally after a great deal of pressure Tehran admitted the plane was shot down by mistake and at this point I think few would suggest they deliberately shot it down... and yet there are still doubters on both sides.

We still don't know what really happened with regard to the Iranian missile strike in Iraq. One side is lying or more likely, both are. Both governments have a track record in this regard and once again it must be acknowledged that in conflict and war, the truth is always the first casualty.

It's worth pointing out that Washington is hardly weeping that Canada is now involved. The Ukrainian angle doesn't hurt either and that too is interesting to say the least. The Trump administration has been more than a little miffed that their allies have been less than robust in their support. If it appears Tehran has deliberately shot down a civilian airliner, the regime is discredited and can be deemed 'rogue' as the US would have it. As far as the allies are concerned, Trump is acting in a deranged and reckless manner and they're being very cautious. The story has only now come out but the US also attempted to assassinate another Iranian general the same day in Yemen, an attack that failed.

One is reminded of events in 1983 when KAL 007 was shot down on the borders of the Soviet Union. The flight was traveling from Anchorage Alaska to South Korea and it strayed off course into Soviet airspace. The US painted the shootdown as wanton aggression, an act of complete disregard for human life. But there have always been questions. There were some 'funny' things going on and there's evidence to suggest the US in collaboration with Korean Air Lines (KAL) was probing and testing the Soviet frontier. There were also suggestions that there was a second espionage (and likely stealth) plane involved that was using the 747 as cover. The Soviets were painted as a rogue regime and the US media certainly played its part. I remember those days and I remember being worried that we were headed toward World War III. In fact it was even worse than many of us realised as 1983 was easily one of the tensest years of the Cold War surpassed only by the events of 1973 and of course the most dangerous moment of all, the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. The shootdown also has to be understood in the context of that especially tense year. The Reagan administration was on a war footing and Moscow seriously believed they were facing an attack, perhaps even a First Strike. That doesn't excuse what they did but honesty demands the context be taken into account.

The ironies here are pretty thick. In the midst of all these events Trump was bashing Iran for their destabilising activities throughout the Middle East. One wonders how he can say it with a straight face. The primary force that has ripped apart the Middle East and fostered instability over the past 20-30 years is undoubtedly the United States. Since 1991, US actions in the Middle East have directly and indirectly led to the deaths of about 3 million people and whole societies have been destroyed in the process.

At this point it would seem the Iranians were on high alert in response to their retaliatory strike. The missile system erred or wasn't being monitored properly and it picked up the Boeing 737 as being an incoming threat. Someone or something messed up.

Though this could be used to ratchet up tensions, it would seem Trudeau is openly calling it an accident, and Trump himself for all his bluster seems ready to stand down. We'll see what the next few weeks bring.

If Iran indeed shot it down, it was a tragic mistake and yet they are culpable. But of course Trump himself bears at the very least some tangential blame. The climate was created by Trump, a climate in which rattled nerves and fear lead to mistakes... tragic mistakes in which people die. This is what happens in war. It's not a video game.

In addition to KAL 007 in 1983 there was another event in 1988 and one that involved the US and Iran. Though the American public has forgotten about it, the Iranians remember it all too well. They had one of their civilian airliners (Iran Air Flight 655) shot down in the fog of war. It was in the context of the Iraq-Iran War endgame, the last desperate days of the war. The US Navy was patrolling the Persian Gulf. There was terrible confusion as a year earlier the Iraqis (who were being backed by Washington) had mistakenly attacked a US ship and the Americans were at the same time involved in skirmishes with Iran. Now it was the American's turn to be confused. The USS Vincennes launched a SAM and blew up an Iranian Airbus A-300 killing almost 300 people in the process. Some have argued it was deliberate. While I wouldn't put such actions past the criminality of the Pentagon, it would seem in this case it was a genuine accident.

In the fog of war innocent people die. Those who generate the fog bear some responsibility. You can't directly blame Trump for shooting down the Ukrainian 737, but in assassinating Qassem Suleimani he further destabilised the Middle East and Iranian security in particular.

War is always tragic, something the myth-makers and romantics choose to forget or ignore.