Incirlik AFB Under Question

https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/turkey-warns-it-could-kick-out-us-from-incirlik-nuclear-base/

Incirlik Air Force Base has long been a key outpost, staging area and strike platform for the US and NATO. It has played an important role in how the US projects power into the Middle East.

When I was based in Italy we had flights that went to and from Incirlik every week. It was also openly known that the US had nuclear weapons there and in fact I saw some of the B61's referenced in the article with my own eyes. The base played an important role in the so-called No-Fly Zones of the 1990's and was meant to play a large role in the 2003 Invasion of Iraq but it was blocked by Erdogan who was even then already suspicious of Washington.

I'm sure it was no surprise to Erdogan that some of the coup operations in 2016 seemed to be based out of Incirlik... a nexus of Turkish military and NATO collaboration. The Turkish military has long been the protector of Kemalism and as such represents the gravest threat to Erdogan's administration. By 2016 he had purged and replaced anyone suspected of conspiring against his AKP government and of collaborating with the US based cleric Fethullah Gülen. As such the coup attempt failed and appeared to be a last gasp, a desperate attempt by the old guard to once and for all remove Erdogan and protect the legacy of Ataturk.

Erdogan's actions have all but wrecked the NATO plan for Eastern Europe and the Black Sea region. His purchase of the Russian S-400 Anti-Ballistic Missile System has created a security risk for NATO and they are furious with him.

While Erdogan has not taken Turkey out of NATO, the nation's membership is certainly in question. From Article 5 considerations to its place in the overall strategy, Turkey is now the odd man out. Erdogan for his part is playing a careful game, not willing to become an open enemy of the West but at the same time he apparently believes (with reason) that NATO is in fact his enemy and continues to conspire against him.

The US-imposed economic sanctions have wounded the Turkish economy and Erdogan has few tools in his arsenal apart from foreign policy. He's stepping up pressure in the Mediterranean which has the potential to put him into conflict with fellow NATO member Greece and now he's threatening to force the US out of Incirlik... something the US most certainly does not want to happen. And so the pressure mounts.

For the US it would mean the loss of a major strategic base and they would have to reckon with practically public spectacle of moving their arsenal of nuclear weapons... some have suggested this has already been a work in progress, an anticipatory and preemptive move on the part of the Pentagon. Whether these missiles will make their way back to Italy or more controversially end up being stored in Kosovo remains an open question. You can be sure these bases are being watched closely. I remember the tension during some of those loading and unloading operations and the rather intense timetable due to satellites. I wonder what it's like now in the age of drones. All I can say is, I'm glad I have nothing to do with it.

It wouldn't' be the first time the US military has been forced out by a rebel satrapy. The post-Marcos Philippines more or less tossed the Americans out in the early 1990's and yet at that time the bases which had been so critical during Vietnam weren't deemed necessary any more. The US antagonism to China was considerably lower at that time, all the more as the US was heavily investing in the country's economic rise.

But now the US has made it known that they would certainly like to re-establish a military footprint within the Philippines and once the chaos of the Duterte era comes to end it wouldn't surprise me if it happens. You can be sure that both Beijing and Washington will be doing all they can to manipulate the politics of the country.

For Erdogan, I'm sure he's watching his back and has stepped up internal security. He knows that NATO wants him gone and there's (effectively) a price on his head. At this point closing Incirlik will only increase American wrath, but in another sense, what does he have to lose?