After resolving the years-long dispute over the naming status
of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), the newly named North
Macedonia is poised to join NATO. This has been a long-time goal of both
Brussels and Washington, a step toward the post-Cold War consolidation project
that began in the 1990's, an agenda that lost steam in the early 2000's.
Since that time, Russia (and even to some extent China) have
become involved and have made their own counter moves to arrest NATO expansion
to the East. For Russia the fear is that NATO will surround its Western and Southern
borders, encompassing the former Warsaw Pact nations and the former Soviet
states in the Caucasus. For China, NATO expansion touches on Central Asia and
in general terms its desire to expand its role in the Middle East and Africa...
a fear Russia shares at certain points.
Apart from Serbia, Russia has all but lost its influence in
the Orthodox world of the Balkans and Eastern Europe. Macedonia is one of the
few places left in which there are political actors willing to stand with
Russia and share its interests. But it looks like the battle in Skopje is all
but over, at least in formal political terms. This is not to suggest the
tensions within the country are resolved.
At present there's a bit of a hold-up but at this point it's
not about Greece as much as issues involving debates within the larger EU.
There are debates in Spain over principles of political dissent and separatism.
Madrid wants to tread carefully as they don't want the EU or NATO to establish
a precedent that can be turned against the Spanish government and its own
separatist problems in Catalonia and the Basque country.
For France, there is the issue of policy with regard to
Russia and the problems associated with the NATO and the EU (for they often go
together) taking on more troubled states... states with questionable economies
and shaky political situations. For Macron, North Macedonia smells like a trap,
a trap the anti-Moscow hawks are eager to dive into. If the situation
degenerates and there's trouble, the warmongers smell a chance for some
adventure and fun and a chance to fire at Russians. For Macron, he wants to
patch things up with Moscow, and bringing North Macedonia on board brings very
little to Europe... but only invites
trouble.
To be fair there are the others, those that don't necessarily
wish for war with Russia but desperately wish to finish consolidating Europe
and creating a holistic bloc that ends at the Russian border. This is for
cultural reasons, for security and to close the door to outside influence and
brewing trouble in Europe's weak Balkan underside... an underside with some
very bad historical associations.
There's also the issue of Turkey and the old Ottoman Muslim
populations in the Balkans. As the situation with Ankara remains unstable
there's also fear that a figure like Erdogan could use these populations to
stir up trouble. The Muslims of the Balkans have often been politicised,
scapegoated and in other cases utilised by powers that would control the
region.
There's also the question of Greece. As the one article makes
clear the Greek population was divided on the question of North Macedonia, once
again betrayed by the completely duplicitous if not treacherous Syriza Party
which purported to be populist and Leftist but in fact was a tool of the
European Establishment. Syriza pushed the North Macedonia naming legislation
through and yet as tensions mount in the region, especially with Turkey over
issues of Cyprus, Mediterranean shipping, energy supplies, and immigration,
there's been a resurgence of Greek nationalism and an expressed bitterness over
the North Macedonia deal. Both NATO and the EU may find a recalcitrant and
dissident Greece once more working against it when it comes to the issue of North
Macedonia.
The regional and geopolitical tumult has been complimented by
internal stress as the Macedonian government is divided. For Western-connected
elites in Macedonia, NATO is only part of the puzzle. EU membership is the real
prize and yet Macedonia is a long ways off from qualifying for the EU. Looking
to the example of other Balkan nations such as Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia
which all have their economic and political issues, as well as problems with
corruption, the EU aspirants in Skopje are agitating for a quick ride to
Brussels. But as they're finding out, it's not so simple. There is resistance
both from within Macedonia and within Europe itself.
It would seem Russia has lost this round and yet the round
may not be quite over. This is a developing story that demands attention. It
has the potential to develop into something much bigger.
See also:
And so at last, it's official... North Macedonia is part of the club. International events are receiving less coverage during Coronavirus but things are still happening. The powers that be are not idle.
ReplyDeletehttps://thedefensepost.com/2020/03/27/north-macedonia-joins-nato-alliance-as-30th-member/