A Proxy Battlefield and Potential Powder Keg in the Ukraine

http://ericmargolis.com/2014/01/dont-let-kiev-become-another-sarajevo/

Margolis accurately describes the danger and realities of the situation in Ukraine.

A little context might be helpful...

The US began to move aggressively in 1989 to establish a Unipolar world order...Bush's New World Order.

This vision had nothing to do with the UN. It was about American dominance and control through a global network of military bases, treaties and international institutions which would facilitate globalism.

Globalism was supposed to be the panacea for the world's problems. Nations networked through trade and finance would not be able to risk war. At the top of this new way of doing things, this new order would be the United States. The multinational corporations of the globalist model would serve as a new means to expand power and influence, acquire resources and give pretence for military interventions and presence.

Within a few years the US had moved to gobble up the Eastern Bloc nations bringing them into NATO, or the European Union where at least there could be mechanisms for control. Any dissident state or group like the Serbs of Yugoslavia had to be crushed... and quickly while Russia (their traditional ally) was down.

The US quickly discarded old allies like Savimbi in Angola, Mobutu in Zaire, flipped again in the Horn of Africa, and began to shift posture in South Asia. In Latin America some of the old dictatorial regimes were abandoned, bringing an end to some of the brutal repressions and civil wars. Corporations would serve better in the new order of things, although the US is finding itself increasingly needing to intervene in order to stop popular movements.

Of course the fallout hasn't always been pretty (one thinks of the UNITA/Mobutu/Hutu alliance in the Congo Wars) but it enabled the United States to change the narrative.

Another ally, Saddam Hussein was abandoned and used (temporarily) as the new bad guy on the block. The Gulf War of 1990-91 was more than anything a geo-political declaration to the world and an opportunity for the US to begin shifting from a posture from Northern Europe to the Middle East and Asia where the new battle lines would be...in the new era of wars.

As I've mentioned my own shameful foray into the Air Force was during this period and it was an open doctrine...the US was shifting to Southern Europe and the Middle East. Germany's days of massive US presence would be winding down, although by no means finished. I was a stupid pawn in a game for US mastery and the spread of death in the Balkans and a near genocide in Iraq.

The US moved aggressively into Central Asia and the Caucasus....oil and other resources being a goal or at least pretence. Blocking a Russian rebirth and Chinese expansion was essential as several geo-political commentators have noted.

Vladimir Putin sought to break the power of the Oligarchs, some of whom had been funded by the CIA. Russia was in chaos and Putin sought to bring Russia back under control and reassert its position in its traditional geo-political sphere.

The United States doesn't want this and there has been a tug-of-war over issues like missile defense, which (used offensively or defensively) would weaken Russia's ability to defend itself... a sort of post-Cold War kick in the teeth. The American media never bothered to explain the implications of the unilateral American withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002 and what this meant for Russia in light of America's plans to put missiles all over Eastern Europe.

Of course as I've mentioned in other posts, just as WWII is viewed very differently in America and Russia, so is the fall of the Soviet Union. I'm not speaking of those who wish for a return to the USSR, rather the whole narrative concerning its collapse. Was it the 'defeat of the Evil Empire', brought down by the Reagan Doctrine? Or was it an internal collapse and prolonged transition made worse by American aggression post 1991?

Putin has battled the US over Georgia and their European allies over natural gas. There are struggles over pipelines and shipping. Elements within the US government have been pushing for renewed hostilities with Russia. John McCain ever the warmonger, pushes for military intervention every chance he gets and he has tried to insert himself into these confrontations.

But Ukraine is proving the most dangerous fault line. The country changed its demographics during the time of the USSR and today should almost be reckoned two different countries. The west is Ukrainian and the East is dominated by Russians and Russia interests. The US has backed Yushchenko and the jailed Tymoshenko while the Russians back the current president Yanukovych. The Orange Revolution put the American allies into power but the Russians grabbed it right back. And right now the country is in danger because the protestors on the street aren't giving up.

Putin is not going to let go. Ukraine is of great strategic importance to Russian interests. If people would read history they would know this. Look at a map. The struggle is about Black Sea ports, the Crimea, energy, and Russia's unwillingness to have a hostile government inserted into its heartland like a cancer waiting to kill.

It's like in the Caucasus. They were willing to let Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan go, but there was no way Chechnya, Ingushetia, and Dagestan would be allowed to follow suit.

Obama may let the Ukraine go. The Right already views him as traitorously weak reincarnation of Jimmy Carter. Putin has certainly out maneuvered him on Syria, although I'm sure Obama views Republican opposition as traitorous as well. It certainly would have been viewed that way a couple of generations ago. But times change and today everything is politicised.

If Obama makes a stand on Ukraine it could push the world into a dangerous direction. The Olympics in Sochi are all playing into this drama as well.

This reminds me of the tense atmosphere of the '80 games in Lake Placid and the '84 Winter Games in Sarajevo. Even the global-minded Olympics can't escape geopolitics. I remember feeling guilty because I had a bit of a crush on figure skater Katarina Witt. But she was East German! She was evil, right? We weren't supposed to like them.

If Obama stands down, the country may erupt into Civil War. The United States will find it a convenient venue to frustrate their Russian adversary. Ukrainians will die and businessmen the world over will grow rich. It would certainly spread into Moldova and the Transnistria breakaway state. I don't think Putin wants that to happen though. It will turn Russia into an international pariah.... But Europe still needs his gas.

There is a growing Protestant church in Ukraine and I've been very encouraged by what I've read and followed. It would be a sad thing to think of many brethren caught up in the middle of such a mess. I hope they are not manipulated by American interests. This sort of thing has happened before. The US government can use Christians involved in Heritage or some other group to reach churches in another community and create a base for activities.

I hope the Ukraine is able to peaceably divide. It wouldn't solve all the problems but it would put an end to this dangerous situation. If suggested, there will be massive resistance from Western globalists. They want far fewer political entities to exist, not more. They want consolidation as it is more efficient. Balkanization as they derisively refer to the division of countries, promotes instability, occasion for war, and difficulties in trade and business.

But the location of natural resources will be key to any kind of political divide. And for that (as with Sudan) there is no easy solution.