28 January 2014

The Divide between Geopolitical Strategy and Public Perception



This news has been out for awhile and it's nothing too shocking but it was noticeably absent from the mainstream media.

Wesley Clark is the retired general who made a run for president back in 2004. I remember when he entered the race, I thought he would probably have a pretty good chance. Kerry being a New Englander would struggle to win over Southern and Midwestern swing voters. Kennedy had to pick Johnson in order to win that block.

Clark was perfect for a run against Bush. He was a moderate Southerner and ex-military. He couldn't be accused of being some kind of ultra-left type. His criticisms of the Iraq policy would have held some weight...but apparently he didn't play his cards right.

Anyway, in recent years he's commented on the War on Terror and what he reveals is worth considering. For years many observers have believed that this was the mechanism the United States was employing to firmly establish the Unipolar System.

After the Cold War and the end of Bi-polarity many believed and hoped the world would naturally revert to its historic Multi-polar paradigm... powerful countries with regional interests etc...

The Cold War was an anomaly and artificial. When this scenario ended the United States quickly embarked to establish the 'New World Order' as George HW Bush put it. Many think of this as some kind of UN-based global government. Quite the contrary. The unipolar order was supposed to be based on the United States.

Within weeks after the fall of the Berlin Wall, Panama was invaded. Old allies were turned on, old wars abandoned. The Gulf War of 1990-91 was as much a geo-political declaration as it was a war...which for the most part it was not.

The US pushed for German reunification and intervened in the Balkans to ensure the whole of Europe was either part of the EU, within NATO or at the very least compliant with the strategic designs of these organizations. Again, these are mechanisms for control. The US can twist the EU's arm if need be and it dominates NATO.

In the following years US policymakers would move to gobble up the remnants of the Warsaw Pact, make alliances in the Caucasus and forge ties with the energy rich '-stans' of Central Asia. This was to check any attempt at Russian revival and to stop the quickly surging Chinese economy. In Russia itself the US moved to ally itself with corrupt Oligarchs and collaborate with the criminal underworld. Only with Vladimir Putin did the American surge begin to slow. He quickly checked America's domestic influence, and sought to counter them in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Ukraine is still caught in the tug-of-war.

The Project for the New American Century lamented the ascension of Bill Clinton. After the Somalia debacle he was reticent to pursue their plans. Ultimately he did move on Bosnia and in his second term would become more active in the pursuit of Iraq, Sudan, and finally after the non-conformist Serbs in Kosovo. The Serbs had to be 'corrected' before Russia would be strong enough to return to its historic role (in the Multi-polar scheme) as protector of Eastern Christendom...the role it is now assuming.

The end of the Cold War meant that (whether true or not) America could declare a victory. But the celebrations would be short lived. Geopolitical strategists need enemies and the US floundered throughout the 1990's declaring war on Drugs and Terrorism but these things didn't stick until 2001.

Then the United States had every justification it needed to 'seal the deal' and pursue its strategic objectives.

These objectives were regime change in: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Iran

The domination of these states would fulfill the grand plan concerning the securing of resources, the security of Israel and Saudi Arabia, the Red Sea/Suez Canal and the Persian Gulf and place the US nicely with regard to their objectives vis-a-vis the New Russia which was taking shape under Putin.

This was the plan and it had very little (if nothing) to do with Al Qaeda and terrorism. This was sort of a Phase 1 on the road to global dominance.

These military manoeuvres coupled with surging Globalization and the sudden growth in computer technology with regard to logistics and surveillance would secure the world for American Unilateralism or to employ the euphemistic language of the new paradigm...the Hyper-power.

This was the plan and in some ways it has succeeded and in others it has failed miserably. Bush and the people behind him were more than willing to carry this out but they bungled it badly. They misread the Iraq situation so badly that it significantly derailed their plans. By 2006, the plan was collapsing and by the time the financial crisis hit in 2008 it seemed dead. The election of Obama seemed to be the nail in the coffin.

But like Bill Clinton, Obama has completely betrayed his base and while trying to distance himself from Bush's geo-strategic policies, in many ways he has simply expanded them. The game is by no means over.

By the end of the Iraq debacle the world situation had already began to shift and the Arab Spring confirmed this... but also in some ways has bogged America down. Obama has obviously been sold on the next phase of the American Empire project...

It would seem that Absolute Unipolarity is a bit out of reach. To use Hegelian terms we need one more round of dialectic....in this case another round of Bipolarity. The US would rather enter into a second Cold War with China then have the world political scene break up into a multi-polar world where we see the US as merely as a hemispheric power competing with China, India, Turkey, Russia and Europe as other world power bases.

The next decade is make-or-break time for the unipolar dreams of the United States. There are numerous possibilities and scenarios but one thing is clear...the United States we all knew during the post-World War II years is gone and isn't coming back. We've undergone a huge cultural shift akin to what took place after 1945.

3 comments:

  1. So you think that a new bilateralism will emerge in order for the US to collect all the wavering types, fearful of a different realm? And in the end, the game continues,but doesn't collapse under the multi-lateral power construct?

    I suppose that's interesting, and would make sense if so. In the end, the difference between Bush & Obama is nill. It's the same corporatism and imperialism under a progressive smile. A vision for empire run by secular-soldiers instead of evangelical culture-warriors is still a vision for empire. I look back to 2008, wow. How blind was I to think that McCain was the only hope for the US.

    Cal

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  2. Totally my opinion. There's no consensus when it comes to this stuff.
    If you read some of the literature during the '90s produced by Brzezinski and some of the other global-types, they all talk about the opportunities of globalization. But it would take something to nudge the world to start accepting all the security and trade frameworks etc...
    Basically get nations to abandon nationalism and start cooperating. The NWO was supposed to be all about that....just with the USA on top of the heap. Kind of a shadow empire.
    One of the main mechanisms of course was to be the multi-national corporation and they certainly took off post '91. They were already in existence but '89-'91 opened a new era for them. The USA really changed during those years. It was like another version of the 50s.
    Resources were critical and setting up legal frameworks that would allow multi-nationals to act and have leverage was the game. WTO, IMF, World Bank, G7, G8, EU....all the stuff the folks were protesting in Seattle in 1999.
    The event Brzezinski and the PNACers were waiting for came (a little too conveniently) in 2001... Pearl Harbour II.
    But Bush completely destroyed the plan.
    Now I do think there are internal debates in the power elite circles. I think the Neo-Cons had a bit more of a USA hegemonic view...more blatant and explicit....overtly conquering countries.
    The Rockefeller/CFR/Technocrat types (if I can generalize) see things in more subtle and nuanced terms....less ostentatious displays of power. They're not that different than the Neo-Cons but that is just not how it was to be done.
    I think the appearance of multi-lateralism is critical to the Rockefeller types. It's not real, but it's essential for propaganda and to build a new sense of global identity....joining the club as it were.
    This is all my take of course.
    I think Bush botched it so badly that he basically ruined the opportunity 9/11 would have provided for the USA to take the lead and seal the deal. Fukuyama had declared history to be done...as if the Hegelian Dialectic had finally reached the final synthesis.
    Oops.

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  3. The Establishment types envisioned a post 9/11 response of....
    Global policing...not global war. Global security agreements and trade....financial liberalization...all the things that empower the corporate state.
    Instead Bush shattered the Middle Eastern balance of power. Just decimated it. He indirectly and unintentionally fed the unrest that became the Arab Spring. That was democratic, which in the Middle East means anti-American.
    I think by 2005-2008 the whole thing was shredded. The opportunity afforded by 9/11 was gone. The USA had become an international pariah or at least would have been if it were possible. The world had turned against the USA of 1989- 2001. By 2003 it had become a different beast and by 2006-.....a monster.
    I often wonder what old Daddy Bush thinks of his son. In many ways his son destroyed everything he and all his Elitist/Carlyle types had sought to build.
    The one group that had all their fantasies fulfilled are the Defense Contractors...Ol' Daddy made a few buck too!....they have had the biggest windfall since Vietnam and then some. And all the other corporations... I recommend Frontline's Top Secret America if you haven't seen it.
    Those people....the creatures of the security bureaucracy have done very well. That monster is so out of control that it's going to take a president much bolder than Obama to rein it in and start cutting out some of the stuff.
    I'm waiting for the revelations to come out that Poindexter's TIA programme though supposedly canceled has in fact continued. They've collected all the data, like he wanted....he simply wanted to develop the software and mechanisms to assimilate it all and analyze it. Total Information Awareness.
    Snowden basically has confirmed this...but few in the media have been able or willing to put it together. Even after all that has happened, I don't think the public grasps what the government is doing.
    Bush's failure means that...the Empire certainly marches on.... but will have to reorient. The world in 2014 is quite a bit different than 2001. Groups like BRICS (plus Turkey if they can't get rid of Erdogan. No luck so far) ....represent a real threat to American hegemony and unilateralism.
    If they (BRICS + an ally or two) can re-tool the UN Security Council you'll really see America pull back from the leadership/domination role.
    Of course Multi-lateralism also means...instead of lots of guerilla wars and lopsided wars...the potential for big wars will arise.
    I think that's where we (the world) are headed....

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