The Endless Battle for the Balkans

https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/news/west-urges-kosovo-serbia-to-restart-talks-with-urgency/

The Atlanticist project to consolidate Europe in the wake of 1989 has hit a brick wall in the Balkans. While nations like Albania, Romania and Bulgaria were quick to join the NATO/EU axis, the break-up of Yugoslavia proved more difficult.

On the one hand the 1990's break-up afforded an opportunity to split the opposition which has always been centred on Moscow's old ally in Belgrade. In the wake of Tito's 1980 death, the Serbs had come to dominate Yugoslavia and so the West facilitated its fragmentation culminating in the US/NATO backed war for an independent Kosovo in 1999.

Serbia had effectively been broken but then Russia underwent a resurgence under the leadership of Vladimir Putin and Serbia too was revitalised. The anti-EU elements are more or less out of power but there are still strong anti-Brussels/anti-Washington undercurrents at work within Serbian politics, society and in its economics.

The burgeoning Albanian population (which came to denominate the Serbian heartland of Kosovo) on the one hand represents US interests and indeed the Albanian ruling class works in close concert with NATO and in particular the United States. However, Albanians in Kosovo, (North) Macedonia and Central Europe also represent something else... organised crime. And it would be a mistake to think this is somehow divorced from the same ruling class relationships that are also tied to Washington. The Albanians are the American spearhead in the Balkans and the Serbians represent their own interests which also happen to coincide with the interests of Moscow.

The sources of tension that led to the wars of the 1990 are still very much alive. They are rooted in unresolved questions harking back to WWII and beyond. It wouldn't take much for the Balkans to explode once more. Weapons smuggling to support NATO projects in the Middle East and large-scale immigration have only exacerbated the tensions.

Brussels is all the more desperate to pacify and stabilise the situation as NATO's status is becoming less certain. A United States working contrary to the interests of Brussels or the Aachen Bloc could undermine European stability, or a weakened and disengaged Washington could allow Moscow to capitalise on Balkan instability and breed war on Europe's southeastern frontier.

The best solution from the standpoint of Brussels, Paris and Berlin is very simple. Bring these Balkan nations on board and do all that is possible to bolster their economies and stabilise their political orders. Make sure they're solidly in the Western camp and yet this prospect is all the more daunting in light of what's happening in Italy, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and even Austria.

Bismarck knew in the 19^th century that the Balkans had the potential to spark a Great War. While the situation is certainly different today there are still fundamental conditions at work which have not changed and while a 21^st century war would certainly be different, the Balkans possess that same potential, that same powder-keg quality which could drive history to repeat itself.

Europe's intellectuals and deep political thinkers know this and that's why the alarm is being sounded. In the midst of all this, there are mission movements in the region that are effectively caught in the middle. And likewise Christian attitudes toward the EU and NATO are also going to affect how these same people approach missions work in the Balkan region. It is an unfortunate reality but one that both thinkers and sponsors should be aware of and prepared to navigate.

See also:

https://www.politico.eu/article/serbia-stands-by-plans-to-extend-russia-trade-ties-despite-brussels-warning/