This is part of an ongoing project by the members of the
Atlantic Establishment. Washington and the EU are making a joint effort to
secure the region of Transcaucasia and establish it as a beachhead against
Moscow.
It could be argued that there are elements within the United
States that would make this a frontline region, part of the Pentagon's
encirclement strategy. If they had their way, Georgia would become part of NATO
and thus represent a further threat on Russia's southern border. It would also
represent a new stage in NATO's eastern expansion, leapfrogging the Black Sea
and bringing NATO to the doorsteps of both Russia and Iran. Turkey is of course
a longtime NATO member but its status is in question and with Transcaucasia,
especially Azerbaijan the Western powers bring their influence to the shores of
the Caspian Sea and ever closer to the great strategic prize of Central Asia.
Georgia has already been more or less in alignment with the
West and yet there are elements in both Europe and the United States that are
leery of bringing it fully on board with institutions like NATO. Tbilisi is
corrupt and has deep social and economic problems. There's even been talk of
bringing it into the EU but at this point that's pretty much an absurdity.
Additionally Georgia has contested areas and indefinite borders. Russia is made
into the villain of course (especially after 2008) but the historical realities
are a little more complicated than how it is usually presented in the West. In
the end there are few European nations that are willing to go to war (via
Article 5 obligations) for the sake of a small corrupt nation that's historically
and culturally outside of the European mainstream. Not a few Americans feel the
same but there are many (once led by the warmonger John McCain) that would
happily risk all out war with Moscow for the sake of their Georgian ally. Of
course it's not due to some inherent love for the people or culture of Georgia,
rather it's that Georgia serves as a useful pawn in their larger strategy.
Armenia until recently has been a solid member of the Russian
orbit. Not unfriendly to the United States, Yerevan has nevertheless retained
its ties to Moscow. A big part of this equation is related to Washington's
close ties to the Turkish nations of Turkey proper and Azerbaijan. The Azeris
were once known as the Turco-Tatars and are cultural close cousins to the Turks
of Anatolia. Armenia's enmity with the Turks goes back centuries and has
continued until the present, particularly with regard to Azerbaijan and
Ankara's refusal to acknowledge the 1915 genocide. Until the Erdogan era, the
US maintained close ties with Ankara and extended these ties to Baku once the
USSR broke up in the 1990's. Oriental Orthodox Moscow remained the natural ally
for Armenia and yet recent political developments (and perhaps machinations on
the part of Washington) have caused Yerevan to begin what could almost be
described as a 'flip' into Washington's column. At the very least Armenia is
moving toward the centre, a sort of non-aligned position which although less
than pleasing to the West still represents an improvement even a victory. Over
the past couple of years Moscow has been doing all it possibly can to keep ties
strong and wed Yerevan's military apparatus to Moscow. It's a Catch-22 as
closer ties to Armenia foment stress with Azerbaijan and vice-versa.
Azerbaijan on the other hand is at risk of slipping away and
moving closer to Moscow's orbit. Riding Erdogan's anti-Western/pro-Moscow wave,
the Aliyev Dynasty seems to be pulling Baku away from the Western column and
into more of a non-aligned (but slightly pro-Moscow) position. It's difficult
as these things are subtle and yet clearly the West is making moves to buttress
the relationship. Azerbaijan is critical in terms of geopolitics. Its oil
reserves and its strategic positioning make it a valuable asset. As is well
known, the Israeli's have forged ties with Baku and continue to use Azerbaijan
as a base to monitor Iran.
The history is further complicated by Azerbaijan's unique
status as a Turkic but largely Shiite nation. This gives them an interesting
relationship with Tehran that is further complicated by the fact that modern
Azerbaijan was a creation of Stalin, an annexed pseudo-state grabbed by the Soviets
in response to Anglo-American machinations during and after World War II. And
just where is the rest of Azerbaijan? In Northwest Iran with Tabriz being its
major urban and cultural centre.
The chess game gets pretty complicated in the Caucasus. And
then of course there are all the territorial disputes between Armenia and
Azerbaijan. Since the end of the Cold War, Armenia also found a solid ally in
Tehran but given their recent drift, this too may be in doubt... yet another
coup on the part of the West and Tel Aviv.
There are further aspects to this Transcaucasian dance. The
EU is making its move in Azerbaijan and while in the past that would have been
viewed under the umbrella of Atlanticist diplomacy and strategic planning, in
the Trump era that paradigm may be called into question. Brussels and the
powers behind the EU (Paris and Berlin) are thinking ahead and their moves in
Azerbaijan may be laying the groundwork for a Post-Atlanticist era in which
NATO is obsolete and the EU or perhaps the Aachen Bloc are on their own
pursuing their own diplomatic and energy acquisition projects.
If Azerbaijan is aware of this (as they most certainly are)
they will try to play their hand to their advantage and like a debutante in the
new game, Baku will play her suitors against one another.
And just what will a pro-West, Atlanticist allied
Transcaucasia mean? It will certainly mean a heightening of tensions with its
neighbours and this is the point that may break the political order in these
countries. The people on the streets and in the village don't want trouble.
They don't want to be caught in the middle which is exactly what's going to
happen. Tensions will grow between the nations of the region and Tehran and
Moscow and even Ankara and Tel Aviv. It will take the people rising up against
their country's pro-Western elites to change the equation.
Georgia, long a base for Western supported Chechen insurgents
may find itself caught in a larger struggle, especially if NATO/Washington
decide to step-up the pressure on Moscow, something they seem keen to do.
While not quite the powder keg of the Balkans, the region
bears watching and yet one cannot help but pity the people who live there, the
folk struggling along in economic malaise, run by corrupt rulers and now once
again the playthings, the pawns on the chessboards of empires.
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