For many years I have followed and written about the tensions within the Caucasus and once again they're flaring up but many seem to sense there's something different this time – the potential is there for a greater regional war.
The Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh (or Artsakh as they call
it) are in many respects similar to the Israeli Settler movement. These are
ardent and militant nationalists determined to re-capture a piece of old
Armenia, the ancient archipelago of kingdoms that once dominated that part of
the world before the arrival of their great enemy – the Turk.
As the Soviet Union collapsed the Armenians acted and seized
the territory. Many Azeris, Kurds and others were displaced. The issues surrounding the war fought in the
1990's were never resolved. There's been a cease fire but the borders of the
enclave have ever since remained volatile. It's a region of minefields and
snipers. The Armenian conquerors have held their territory but they've been
forced to live on edge and in constant fear. Additionally the international
community has failed to recognise their claims.
Azerbaijan for its part has close cultural ties to Turkey and
the region's post-Cold War arrangement has always been complicated and tense.
Basically there was a loose Turkey-Azerbaijan-Israel axis backed by the United
States and NATO. This was juxtaposed with the Russia-Armenia-Iran axis.
This arrangement was called into question by the collapse of
relations between Turkey and Israel. Azerbaijan and Armenia are still old
enemies but they're also caught in a tug-of-war between Russia and the West.
But then the real shift took place around the time of the 2016 attempted coup
against Erdogan. He had been slowly shifting Turkish interests in the direction
of Russia and this complicated the relationship within the Caucasus but also
gave some reason for hope as the two big players in the Caucasus were on the
verge of peace.
At the time I argued that the Turco-Russian alliance would
not last. History militates against it and US-led NATO doesn't want to see it
happen. And so while the United States has joined the calls for restraint with
regard to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the truth is I suspect the US is
relishing the moment. The danger is that it could quickly erupt into a wider
war. But in the meantime if this begins to shatter the relationship between
Moscow and Ankara – already strained over the Libya-Eastern Mediterranean
crisis – then some within the Washington-NATO structure will be very happy
indeed.
Turkey's aggressive language and (at present) peripheral
participation in the conflict has made some uncomfortable and this has also
made it seem like the stakes in this latest round of conflict are a bit higher.
The Armenians certainly think so. They believe that not only are they in danger
of losing Nagorno-Karabakh but that their nation itself is in grave peril.
In terms of the big picture, Turkey it would seem is trying to
set up a rival bloc with nations such as Azerbaijan, Qatar, Libya and even the
Palestinian territories. Ultimately their goals would also be to incorporate
some of the Central Asian nations on the basis of Pan-Turkism. This bloc
triangulates the Saudi-Iranian conflict but it also puts them at odds with the
US, EU and potentially Iran and Russia. Erdogan it would seem is (like Prussia
in the 18th century) attempting to force its way into the Great
Powers game.
And don't forget the Israelis also have interests in the
South Caucasus. They've long been working with Azerbaijan and have bases (or
perhaps outposts) there directed against Iran. And if Turkey's aggressive
actions weren't enough, it is well known that Iran (as expected) is backing
Armenia. The US State Department is sending out signals in the Middle Eastern
region that Washington may be preparing for something and people are wondering
if Trump won't produce an October Surprise in the form of a strike against Iran
– under the hypocritical auspices of their interference in the Caucasus. Few
people realise just how close Trump was in 2019 to launching a full assault
against Tehran. He was talked down but there are still those in his circle that
want to see the US in a military engagement with the Islamic Republic.
In the meantime the normal rumour mill has picked up a good
head of steam. And to be fair it's complicated. During the 1990's Chechen
fighters (sometimes backed by Washington) fought (with the Azeris) against the
Armenians. Generally speaking the US has supported Baku but again it's complex
and further complicated by a vibrant Armenian lobby within the United States.
The precursors of al Qaeda were certainly involved and even
now there are rumours of Turkey flying ISIS fighters in the region – stories
being floated by the Western intelligence-connected Syrian Observatory for
Human Rights (SOHR). The story is not meant to stir up support for the
Armenians but is rather meant to smear Erdogan and his government.
Normally the US would be keen to support an ethnic Christian
population like the Armenians but in this case their historic and religious
ties are oriented toward Moscow and given the long and common history there are
cultural ties to Iran. The Armenians are in many respects reminiscent of the
Jews. They are often merchants and are found throughout the Middle East,
Africa, parts of Asia and have considerable diaspora communities in the West –
and yet because of Turkey's place in the Cold War and the question of Caspian
Sea oil, and because the Armenians don't naturally gravitate toward Washington,
the relationship has always been a bit off. The Armenians may be ethnic
Christians but their proclivities are Eastern and find greater resonance with
the impulses and interests of the Orthodox and Persian spheres.
The US would love to see Russia (which has a base in Armenia)
and Turkey start shooting at each other. It might even motivate some to
reignite the still smoldering conflict within Syria. It's a dangerous moment
because it could quickly escalate. Hopefully the power-players will restrain
themselves and restrain the armies on the ground.
See also:
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2016/04/transcaucasia-alliances-and-arms-sales.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2016/04/foreign-fighters-in-transcaucasia.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2018/07/azerbaijani-sabre-rattling.html
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