Asia is Marching Toward War

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2021/05/20/japan-must-speed-up-defense-says-minister/

Though it is often presented as a preventative measure, a type of peace through strength, the truth is militarism always results in conflict. And Japan has been rattling the sabre for some time. The Japanese Right is eager to re-arm and re-assert its traditional role in the Asian theatre. They view Japan as a great power on par with Western nations and now 75 years after its defeat in WWII – it's time for Japan to re-assume its place.

There are those in the United States who don't want to see this happen. They would like to see Japan remain wholly dependent on the US and thus functionally a protectorate of the American Empire. Others want to see Japan re-arm, because they believe Washington is going to need all the help it can get in the coming conflict with China. And there are yet others who echo the subtle if slippery American position taken during the time of William McKinley and Teddy Roosevelt who view an armed Japan as a proxy for their regional interests. Whatever the scenario it means militarisation. Whether the result is an increased presence of American troops and allied bases in Japan itself or a combination of American and Japanese troops – the result is the same.

A reflection on regional history reveals a simple but profound reality. The USA is the glue holding together the anti-China axis. The US is the alien (or imperial) power in the region and due to its presence and power projection the normal historical patterns have been either warped or frozen. We have seen the same phenomenon at work within Europe and thus we may say that when the ahistorical US Empire in Asia crumbles and the satrapies regain full independence – then history returns, historical patterns will once again become the norm. And while South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, and Taiwan certainly hate and fear Beijing – they also hate and fear Japanese nationalism and militarism.

And no nation suffered more at the hands of Japan than China. The Chinese lost fifteen to twenty million people during the war, a tremendous sum, softened only by the already vast Chinese population. In terms of strict numbers, only the Soviet Union lost more. In terms of population percentages, there are other nations that lost more than China, but such statistics cannot downplay the sheer volume of loss and the brutality of the Japanese conquest and occupation. It has not been forgotten.

And yet China was not alone. Other nations suffered at the hands of Japanese imperialism and in the face of Tokyo's re-armament, Beijing will do all it can to stir these memories and passions. One cannot help but wonder if US historians and strategists who often embrace a blind and self-serving narrative regarding the course of the war will miss this point and be blindsided by its potential effectiveness. One is reminded of the Kim dynastic narrative in North Korea and how it plays not just to captive audience within the DPRK but to some people even in the South and among Koreans abroad. A big part of the narrative is that Kim Il-Sung resisted the Japanese. The Americans re-installed and sponsored Japan-collaborators and then subsequently (during the Korean War) devastated North Korea beyond anything the Japanese had ever done or dreamed of.

One is also reminded of the British use of Japanese soldiers to control Vietnam in 1945 – before it was handed back over to the French. These acts of hypocrisy and treachery have not been forgotten.

The theatre has already been building toward conflict. China is trying to assert its regional (and growing global) interests even as the US is working to encircle China and to form a robust alliance against it. The US suffered a massive strategic setback in the collapse of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) under Trump. Many celebrated the downfall of the agreement – often for reasons associated with labour, free speech, economics, and the like. But for those who wanted to strengthen the bonds of an anti-China coalition, its Trump-instigated collapse was catastrophic. Clearly Shinzo Abe of Japan thought so, which was why in November 2016, he rushed to Washington in order to meet with president-elect Donald Trump.

China has certainly responded to the collapse of TPP by stepping into the gap and already nations such as the Philippines and Vietnam have backed off from the United States. If the US isn't going to go to war for them they cannot afford to defy Beijing.

The Japanese angle has been further exacerbated by the fact that this resurgent militarism and call to arms is accompanied by Shinzo Abe's visits to the Yasukuni Shrine – a powerful if dark symbolism that indicates the Right-wing elements within the Japanese political order (who are pushing for militarisation) wish to identify with WWII-era regime and either sanction their war crimes or simply deny them. It's an ominous sign and one not easily missed. These visits have generated outrage in nations like China and the Koreas. Now with Yoshihide Suga in office, everyone is waiting to see if he will emulate Abe and visit Yasukuni.

The United States continues to push regional players such as Australia into signing on to the anti-China campaign and Canberra has mostly complied and yet half-heartedly. The truth is the nation is too dependent on Chinese trade and its loss would break its economy. Canberra and Beijing have already traded diplomatic barbs and Australia is already the worse for wear. For months its coal ships were denied entry into China and while some of the row has calmed, it's hardly resolved.

As seen in the past the US expects its allies to fall on their swords for American interests. And Wall Street stands by ready to help – but the 'help' will effectively mean handing over the economy to Washington. Australia has been there before and while never wholly free from US domination, the nation doesn't want to revisit the past – a past in which the US orchestrated a regime change in the ouster of Prime Minister Gough Whitlam in 1975. During the Obama years, Biden was sent to Australia to bully them into compliance with US policy. Canberra has paid a price as their political order has been in a state of instability for the past decade. They're torn between two unappealing options.

Conflict is coming. It's hard to know when or where. Will there be skirmishes hinting at a wider war or will there be a Sarajevo/1914 event that causes a chain reaction? The Americans are planning for it as are the Chinese. It seems likely to happen at some point.

And while many look to the South China Sea, it could just as easily erupt over events in North Korea, Burma, Xinjiang, Tibet, Taiwan, Central Asia, or even on the high seas. The possibilities are many to say the least.

I pray for the sake of the Church and its already compromised witness in places like China – that it does not take place. But God knows best and has a plan. It is prudent to pay attention to the wars and rumours of wars but we're told to not be troubled. We are in fact to expect these things. Let us be careful not to be caught up in the fighting and in the immorality and the lies that precede and accompany it.