The Guns of August in the Asia-Pacific

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/8/us-warns-china-over-moves-on-philippines-taiwan

These types of articles appear almost daily. The US continues to rattle its sabre and draw lines in the sand – and yet faint lines that can easily be withdrawn. Washington is pushing for war but it's clear there's still a good degree of timidity.

And no wonder, the US Navy has been plagued by accidents and problems over the past several years. One hears whispers of a military branch stretched to the limit, pushed, and lacking in leadership. A war with China will be heavily dependent upon the navy. Are US leaders comfortable with the prospect?

China for its part has read the proverbial writing on the wall and Beijing is pressing ahead and with a degree audacity and resolve the Americans don't seem to possess. They're calling the US bluff and thus far the US seems unprepared or unwilling to act.

Washington is trying to form a solid alliance but it's fraught with problems. They want ships from other nations to participate in their 'freedom of navigation' acts which are really just episodes of nose-thumbing and provocation, attempting to get Beijing rattled or to fire a shot that will garner an international response. The sailors are cannon fodder and they probably know it.

The problem is further understood by asking a simple question. What does a 'win' look like for the United States? What does it look like for China?

All China has to do is hold off the US. The US is not going to march into Beijing. America's best hope is to cripple the regime which would lead to its collapse – a CIA-sponsored coup, a mass uprising or both. But if that fails, a US 'victory' is empty. And worse it will by pyrrhic. China will certainly wound US prestige. The invincible American military will undoubtedly take some serious hits and the world will see that the US can be challenged. China's goal will be to sink US aircraft carriers – the Death Stars of the American Empire. And many analysts think they will.

China doesn't have to defeat the US to 'win' but unless the CCP falls, then America has lost. And in that scenario it's hard to imagine the US maintaining its global dominance – and certainly not its Asian Empire.

Couple this with the same kind of brinksmanship developing in Ukraine and the push for NATO membership. The Biden administration keeps upping the ante. Eventually that bluff is going to be called and while the US can certainly pack a punch, most believe the American hand is potentially weak. Bombing alone (what America excels at) will not secure the victory.

And again, what does victory look like? Putin has much to lose. That's certain and yet apart from a clear and thorough victory – American prestige is going to suffer. America's best hope would be to knock Russia out of Eastern Ukraine and Crimea but the problems wouldn't end there. The conflict would quickly spread to the Baltic, the Black Sea, the Balkans, and other portions of Eastern Europe. Putin would be desperate to save face and it could push the region into war – and possibly break NATO and maybe even the EU.

The American Empire can fade in a manner akin to the British Empire in the aftermath of WWII. Or more likely the praetorians atop the US system will risk all – even risking a major conflict to come out victorious. Their calculus is frightening and terrible to contemplate. A lot of people may die simply to maintain power. But leaders do it all the time. Netanyahu is guilty of the same in Israel.

Once again, the irony is great but provides no satisfaction. In the 1990's the US was on the brink of true unipolarity. 9/11 was to open the door and allow the United States to consolidate and secure its gains. And yet the madness of that hour and its aftermath set the stage for what is looking more and more like the decline and fall of the American Empire.