The Afghan Withdrawal

https://news.antiwar.com/2021/04/16/pentagon-unclear-if-contractors-will-leave-afghanistan/

The US strategy to secure Afghanistan has failed. A continued combat troop presence will only further tie down Washington and leave it committed to the internal politics of the country. The plans for pipelines have been abandoned – for now.

The hope is that the situation will revert to as it was in the 1990's, in the era following the Afghan Civil War. At that time the US was attempting to negotiate with the Taliban and cut a deal. But at the same time the US was clearly angling for a war and seeking an occasion to gain a beachhead in Central Asia. Twenty years later the situation has changed. The US has effectively lost and the weakened tone that was evident in Biden's recent national speech was palpable.

At the same time, the abandonment of Afghanistan marks a shift – a shift that's been underway since the Obama administration. He attempted to 'surge' Afghanistan in order to secure and pacify it, but by his second term it was clear the doctrine had shifted to 'Great Powers Conflict' – in other words a new contest or Cold War with Russia and China. This latest move by Biden in Afghanistan only ratifies this reality.

But it's never that simple.

The US may or may not pull out of Afghanistan. There's going to be a lot of resistance as there was under Trump. From whom? From the Pentagon and other elements in the Establishment still committed to the Central Asian project and the control of its resources. Afghanistan itself is rich in undeveloped mineral assets and the US knows that once Washington is out – China will certainly be in.

The country is likely to fragment. The US will continue to support the weak Kabul government even while the current incarnation(s) of the Taliban control much of the rest of the country – especially in the South and East. The US will retain mercenaries and will certainly be running drone missions and the like until they're forced out. The Pakistan relationship has soured (effectively closing that door) but the US may attempt to run operations out of India – although the flyover problem remains as does the mountainous terrain. I would say the US has been defeated and yet will attempt to keep the key economic and geopolitical elements of the project alive through other means.

There's also the lesson of Vietnam. The US lost in terms of combat but eventually 'won' in terms of economics and geopolitics. While Vietnam isn't a formal military ally – functionally the nation is more or less on board with US interests in the region. The common enemy found in Beijing has brought them together though Hanoi is cautious, knowing full well just how treacherous the Americans really are.

In terms of Afghanistan, can the US compete with China in the realm of economic incentives and investment? Some think so, others will say 'not a chance'.

Most likely – and this is the tragedy – Afghanistan is headed for another round of civil conflict. Not that the conflict has ever really ended. The US egged on the Soviet invasion in 1979 and subsequently poured fuel on the fire throughout the 1980's. Allied with elements that would later become al Qaeda, the instability created the terrible civil war of the 1990's, followed by the US invasion in 2001.  Over two million have died as a result of Washington's meddling. Not all were killed by Americans of course but the United States certainly bears a great deal of the blame – a point no one in the US Establishment even thinks about or is willing to entertain. The entire episode has been one great crime – an episode of mass murder – and for what? Nothing. It's all part of the Great Game 2.0 and the US has lost. Central Asia has mostly succumbed to China and Russia and the US controls less of Afghanistan than it did in 2002. It's been a catastrophe and a disgrace and at this point many in the American Establishment simply want to walk away and maintain their goals via mercenaries, special ops, drones, diplomacy and Wall Street.

Those that continue to appeal to human rights or the plight of women have missed the point on two fronts. First, such concerns were never the motivating factors in the US campaign. They were used as propaganda to appeal to the public and to NGO's. The war was always about geopolitics and resources. Second, there's a greater irony to be found in the fact that 1970's Afghanistan was far more liberated and secular than it is now. Further the Soviet-aligned government increased women's education and did much to 'liberalise' society in terms of secularisation and Enlightenment values.

The US egged on the Soviets to invade in 1979 in order to 'give them their Vietnam' and in doing so tore the country apart. The chaos provided a vehicle for Islamic extremism and after forty years of war – the situation is certainly no better. The extremism of groups like the Taliban would not have existed had not the US intervened in the 1980's – fueling the war and funding Salafism as a means to fight it. The US has no moral ground to stand on and listening to Western women and Western educated Afghan women protest via the BBC and NPR – one can only conclude that they're either paid agents or ignorant of the larger story.

On the one hand we (as Christians) can be glad the US is withdrawing from Afghanistan but on the other hand the withdrawal isn't what it's being made out to be. The US is licking its wounds and has failed in its specifically Afghan objectives but the game isn't over quite yet.

But more than anything it's a signal that the US is gearing up for conflict in Eastern Europe and the Asia-Pacific regions. The US tore apart the Middle East in the aftermath of 9/11 but it largely failed in its objectives. The world has moved on and rather than America securing the unipolarity Biden hinted at (in a rather empty fashion we might add), these great blunders made by Bush and perpetuated by Obama have brought the US down several pegs and have geopolitically and economically helped to secure the reality of a multi-polar world – the very thing the Washington Establishment did not want to see. The Trump era only amplified the situation and took a sledge-hammer to the already cracked foundations.

And it should be noted that American culture in general has changed drastically over the past twenty years. There's been a remarkable decline in morality and ethics and an explosion in mental health issues, consumerism and other signs of destructive decadence. The US is a tired empire and one on the wane. But the story may not be over quite yet. History demonstrates this trajectory can be reversed for a season, even for a generation or two. Rome did it. The Byzantines did it more than once and yet despite these 'shining' moments of seeming ascendancy – the decline continued. Indeed, all empires collapse and are reduced to dust in the wind. The US is no different. The writing is already on the wall. And the Afghan adventure which began in 1979 is one of the markers that worthy future historians will consider.

See also:

https://proto-protestantism.blogspot.com/2020/11/afghanistan-and-iraq-at-end-of-trump-era.html

https://proto-protestantism.blogspot.com/2016/01/saudi-arabia-and-iran-1979-and-islamic.html

https://proto-protestantism.blogspot.com/2019/09/911-revisited.html

https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2018/04/the-taliban-enigma-afghanistan-and.html

https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2017/06/the-karzai-connection-afghanistan-cia.html

https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2015/11/belmokhtar-hekmatyar-and-blowback-in.html