23 June 2020

Kosovo, Serbia and the Balkan Game in the Age of Trump


Kosovo sometimes referred to as the Fifty-First state of the United States was from the beginning an American creation. It was part of Washington's project to consolidate the power of NATO in the aftermath of the Cold War.


During the 1990's, Serbia was made the paramount enemy as it was the force within Europe that resisted American expansion. The historical ally of Russia, Serbian dominated Yugoslavia was a nation that was broken and increasingly dependent on the US. During the same decade the Serbs refused to sign on with the West and as a consequence had to be broken. The US proceeded to defeat its proxy state within secessionist Bosnia in 1995 and then in 1999 facilitated the secession of Kosovo – which proved to be almost an annexation on the part of the United States.
It's a sordid tale of massacres, paramilitary groups, drug militias, corrupt politicians and large-scale bombing. There was a refugee crisis and manhunts for war criminals. It made for good news although in some respects few were paying attention during the economic boom of the late 1990's and the excitement over the rapid shifts in culture, lifestyle and technology.
And yet over twenty years later the regional tensions remain as NATO failed to consolidate its power and Russia is no longer as weak as it was. Additionally other players like Turkey with historical interest in the region are starting to get involved. The region is becoming a cauldron of ethnic and political tension. The Albanians who politically function as an extension of US power continue to support US interests from Pristina and Tirana and the large Albanian minority populations in neighbouring countries such as the newly labeled North Macedonia persist in social and political agitation directed toward Moscow's allies and Brussels' (Washington's) enemies.
Of course the situation is further complicated by the EU which has at times existed in a somewhat tense relationship with Washington. Under Obama things greatly improved and yet under Trump there's a great deal of angst and confusion – which I'm certain is driving some career strategists and diplomats to distraction as they feel the clock is ticking.
Once Milosevic was ousted in 2000 the West moved quickly to install a puppet government and since then the Belgrade government has officially been working toward moving the pariah nation into the camps of the EU and NATO. And yet there are other forces at work in the country which seek to block this process and so even twenty years later the situation with Serbia remains in doubt.
The Kosovo article demonstrates the level at which the US is involved in manipulate the Pristina government as it still seeks to control the situation and the direction of the region. After 20+ years, it can be said that there are forces within Kosovo that are growing weary of being a US satellite. Washington is dismissive of Kosovar interests and to no one's surprise treats its leaders as serving boys. The question is – will Kurti pay a price for his public disobedience? Time will tell. If those within in Washington that manage the Kosovo project can have free reign – then yes, Kurti will certainly face correction. But if the Trump people are involved, who can tell? They serve their own interests which tend to be more about aggrandising their image and brand and of course there are the endless concerns for personal family rated economic interests.
Thaçi is completely a creature of Washington and the powers that be may turn to internal politics to solve the issue. While The Guardian (in a brief paragraph) misrepresents the nature of the 1999 war and ignores the context, they are right in pointing out the importance of land-swap negotiations. The tension between Serbs and Albanians has not calmed over the past two decades and in fact it's growing worse. A land swap may bring some stability but there are many diplomats both in Washington and Brussels that are concerned over such a prospect as it opens a can of worms. The European map is a cobbled together politically negotiated settlement that does not reflect history. While there were significant population transfers after World War II creating somewhat homogeneous states (which had never existed before) there are still beleaguered minorities and the contagion of irredentism and pent up nationalism can quickly spread.
This is all the more a point of concern with Hungary, the nation that lost over 2/3 of its territory after WWI and continues to advocate for its minority populations in Slovakia, Ukraine and Romania. The nation also lost significant swathes of territory to then Yugoslavia and a small province to Austria. The EU doesn't want Viktor Orban nosing around in the Balkans or using the land-swap-secession principles to agitate for the interests of Hungarian minorities in neighbouring Central European and Balkan nations. And that's just Viktor Orban. There are plenty of other examples.
And now there's Coronavirus which has the potential to rip the region apart due to the economic damage it's causing. Thus far, the region has escaped serious problems related to the pandemic and yet what will the larger European economic fallout be? We don't know and yet it has the potential to affect the full spectrum of the EU's footprint which would certainly include the Balkans.
It's a situation that bears watching, all the more when one considers that Western coverage of any Balkan crisis will be heavily biased and I clearly remember walking into church (an OPC) in 1999 and hearing about Kosovo from the mouths of members and even from the pulpit. I also remember being rather frustrated as I did not believe the commentators were in possession of the facts related to the historical context, nor were they aware of what was happening in Europe in terms of post-Cold War policy. I had been studying the issue for years and had been particularly motivated to do so as I had been a logistical participant in the Bosnian campaign of 1995 – an event that helped open my eyes and motivate me to get out of the military and break with my hitherto Right-wing and nationalist political allegiances.
What they saw were refugees on the news and American diplomats painting the Serbs as expressions of pure evil. The Serb leaders Milosevic, Mladic and Karadzic were all evil players to be sure but the America allies and proxies, the Albanians (including members of the KLA) and the Croats were not much better. It was if ghosts from the past had reappeared and there was a great deal of ugliness and horror on both sides. The Balkan Wars were a spin job and you can be sure it will happen again.
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