https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/how-bulgaria-gave-gazprom-the-keys-to-the-balkans/
In the summer of 2020, the boiling cauldron that is Bulgaria
began to spill over. Caught in a struggle between the West (NATO and the EU)
and its historical ally in Moscow, the Balkan nation has been racked by
controversy and intrigue.
In recent years the tug-of-war has been further exacerbated
by the addition of Turkey into the equation. Turkey under Erdogan remains a
NATO member but has also moved into a functional alliance with Russia. At the
same time Ankara is pursuing its own policies with regard to the Mediterranean,
Middle East and increasingly the Balkans. This puts neighbouring Bulgaria on
the frontline.
The struggles are complex. There are the gas pipelines, an
issue which has even put the EU into an awkward posture vis-à-vis Washington as
the White House want Europe to purchase liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipped
from North America while Europe would rather find a modus vivendi with Russia and purchase its natural gas by way of
pipeline. But when it comes to pipelines there are different routes and
possibilities and Ankara and Moscow are sometimes at odds. Bulgaria being
located in the southeast corner of Europe has become critical. Whether the gas
pipelines come across Turkey or the Black Sea they're likely to pass through
Bulgaria – Russia for obvious reasons wants to circumvent the Ukraine whose
government receives backing from the EU and is the target of NATO expansion.
Bulgaria's government, currently led by Boyko Borisov has attempted
to play all sides and continually issues statements and policies that seem to
assert and backtrack, forge a policy and then through various twists and turns
undermine it. It's a dance that can only be accomplished in a place like the Balkans.
In addition to all the issues surrounding its common border
with Turkey there is the present controversy over Macedonia or North Macedonia
as it is now called. Macedonia, formerly part of Yugoslavia is in some respects
a contrived nation – a political entity with unhappy borders laid claim to (in
part) by Greece and Bulgaria and yet it's population and politics are also
deeply affected by its proximity to Albania – which itself opens it up to a
wider set of regional questions and influences. The history here is fiery and
complicated and by Western standards obscure and unintelligible.
Bulgaria's location has also placed it front and center in
the political struggles surrounding immigration and being a frontier state,
there are controversies over drugs and other forms of smuggling. It's hardly a
leap to bring organised crime into the equation but then there's the politics.
Bulgaria has become a hub for weapons trade and the movement of peoples –
fighters transiting to and from the Middle East into the EU. Intelligence
agencies have been active – the BND, Mossad, the CIA, the SVR, and the MIT. And
this is where it gets really confusing because the activities of the
intelligence agencies often overlap and run parallel to organised crime and the
drug trade.
As a result the Borisov government is swimming in corruption
and intrigue and with it salacious scandals and possible entrapments.
This has led to the public outcry and the demonstrations that
have paralysed the nation since the summer. The Centre-Right Borisov is hardly
the darling of the EU or NATO but he's convenient and thus they tacitly support
him. Washington has been fairly quiet regarding the popular uprising as Borisov
has purchased American weapons, laid the groundwork for a nuclear energy deal,
and has thus far resisted the Chinese along with their growing 5G network.
The opposition (loosely affiliated with the Socialists) is
backed by Russia but as always it's not that simple and there are many factors
and players involved.
Bulgaria which joined NATO in 2004 and the EU in 2007 has
proven a dream unrealised. The liberalisation and prosperity that was hoped to
come as a result of these alliances hasn't panned out – a point being
emphasized by Russia and its proxies at work within the region. The lack of
progress has meant that Bulgaria has been thus far exempted from the lucrative
prospects of membership in the Schengen Zone which would allow visa-free travel
and access to the rest of the EU. Likewise with regard to the Eurozone, the
Bulgarian government has made moves to bring its economy in line with the
necessary provisions to join the currency bloc but as of 2020, the prospects
seem rather distant.
These are wedges utilised by the likes of Russia to stir dissatisfaction
and disillusion among the Bulgarian populace. Moscow would like to see Brussels
(the EU and NATO) out of the Balkans but the Russian agenda is definitely on
the back foot.
Where Borisov is likely to generate anger and turn Washington
against him in the realm of gas – as a scandal has erupted over his dealings
with Gazprom, Russia's premier energy company. This demonstrates that alliances
aren't always what they seem and money talks in a way nothing else can. Borisov
for his part may be trying to retain a degree of autonomy by avoiding his
nation's complete subjugation to Washington and Brussels. But as is the case
with all small nations who try to play off the larger powers – it's a dangerous
game that can turn against them.
Atlanticist elements within the EU fear that Russia is
seeking to control Central and Western European access to energy and will use
this as political leverage in the future. The strongest anti-Russian elements
within Europe (such as Poland) have made a deliberate turn to the US on this
point – but that also makes them rather beholden to Washington's interests.
Others seek peace with Russia and see energy as a means to create mutual
dependence – a situation in which Russia will not feel threatened by Europe and
vice versa – a détente heavily frowned upon by the Washington Establishment.
Bulgaria is not alone. There are many smaller nations caught
up in the midst of this great struggle that seems to be getting more
complicated by the day. Covid and the economic crisis it has generated has not
helped nor have the restrictions on commerce and trade that come with it.
Splits within the EU and even the US are likely to multiply the factions. For
nations like Bulgaria their geography can be both a blessing and a curse.
In the meantime there are people on the streets and the
volatile situation remains up in the air.
See also:
https://proto-protestantism.blogspot.com/2019/12/europes-ghosts-essential-questions-and.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2017/03/byzantine-bulgaria.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2017/01/christopher-steele-us-deep-state-unsg.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2018/07/bulgaria-new-cold-war-and-evangelical.html
http://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2018/06/weapon-sales-and-building-of-deep-state.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2018/07/brussels-is-not-being-idle-eu-albania.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2017/03/macedonia-balkan-trap.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2016/12/peeling-back-curtain-on-recent-israeli.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2020/03/north-macedonia-poised-to-join-nato.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-endless-battle-for-balkans.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2019/03/north-macedonia-nato-and-eu.html
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