Rare Earth Metals and Myanmar's Civil War

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/india-explores-rare-earth-deal-with-myanmar-rebels-after-chinese-curbs-2025-09-10/

https://www.asianews.it/news-en/India-negotiates-with-ethnic-militias-for-Myanmar's-rare-earths-63878.html

This is a somewhat intriguing turn of events. On the one hand India and China are trying to work together in the context of BRICS - which Washington perceives with hostility. On the other hand, the US and India have at times worked together to counter China, and for a time it looked like New Delhi had moved solidly into the US camp - with huge trade and military deals in the works. But then Trump came on to the scene and everything went sideways.

Since then India under the leadership of Narendra Modi has triangulated, working with China at times (such as with BRICS and the SCO), and certainly moving back to closer relations with Moscow - harking back to the Cold War, even while maintaining relations with an increasingly frustrated Washington.

The worldwide race for resources is in full swing and they are becoming all the more critical with the tech boom taking place and with some of the transformative technologies emerging in the 2020's - especially connected to batteries.

Myanmar (or Burma) is rich in so-called rare earths and China clearly has an eye on them. Beijing is in a struggle with the US and others for control of global resources and China needs all it can get and (like all such players) wants to control just who can get them. Beijing is backing the Burmese junta and it's unclear to what extent (if any) the US is involved in backing the rebel groups. Washington certainly did during the Cold War, though the Kachin group in question was never part of the American orbit of support. That said, there have been recent contacts and the US is funnelling money toward some of the rebel groups. Additionally, there are voices within the American foreign policy establishment pushing for US intervention.

India is desperate for these rare earths and appeared willing to negotiate with the junta. This attempt failed and so now there are reports of New Delhi negotiating with the powerful Kachin rebels - seeking to secure the rare earths from their territory. This circumvents China but also has the potential of bringing India into the Burmese Civil War.

If the deal goes through it will be in India's interest to keep the rebels going and secure an enclave that provides a steady supply of these metals. On the other hand it could be argued that since the Kachin have been fighting since 1961, they have an established degree of autonomy and thus stability. Therefore (it follows) that it's a safe bet for New Delhi. Others will argue this will incentivize China to fund and arm a junta campaign against the Kachin.

America for its part wants to see the relationship between India and China broken and so it's likely Washington would encourage such relations - which are obscured by means of shell companies, just as there is overlap between the rebel groups and organised crime. The US will use this if they need to push India on the diplomatic front. They will call out such arrangements to shame and threaten, even while they are content to see this play out.

As the Catholic article makes clear, it's the common people and the minorities within the minority enclaves who will continue to suffer.